One big swing should be enough for the Phils this week in Milwaukee

By Kyle Soppe

Plot:    These are two teams that will be playing more than 162 games this year; that much is not in question. The Phillies have been the league’s best team from the start, while the Brewers have come on strong after the all-star break. As anybody will tell you, it’s not about how you start the season, but rather how you finish it. Both of these teams are looking to gain momentum for what could be a future NLCS matchup.

Setting:    The BrewCrew relies heavily on their strong nucleus of hitters. Paced by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, the Brewers have actually outscored the Phillies on the season. Rickie Weeks may be able to return for this series, providing the Brewers with an offensive jolt that is just icing on their cake. They are near unbeatable at Miller Park, where they have won 50 of 69 contests. The Phillies are no slouch on offense, but it is their pitching that has them atop the NL. On top of the pitching, their ability to win on the road (42-26) has made them immune to losing streaks of any kind.

This series starts on Thursday night, when Cole Hamels (13-7 2.63) takes on Chris Narveson (10-6 4.26). Hamels is the under-appreciated ace of the Phillies staff as he has been as dependable as they come. His 4.45 strikeout to walk ratio ranks him among the league leaders, but ranks him 3^rd on his own team.  Opponents are only batting .210 off of Hamels, so the Brewers will need to make the most of their scoring opportunities (a must versus any of the Philly starters).

Narveson, as is the case with nearly every Brewer, is much better when pitching at home. He is 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA and gets more run support at home. Narveson has only gone 7+ innings 4 times on the year, and if he can’t accomplish that on Thursday, the Brewers will be in rough shape. Narveson hasn’t lost since July 15^th, but he has only registered one quality start over that time.

Roy Halladay (16-5 2.49) takes the mound Friday night, looking to continue yet another outstanding season. The stats, while impressive, don’t tell the whole story. Sure, the 7 complete games and a 4^th straight season with 200+ k’s is nice, but the comfort that he gives Charlie Manuel cannot be measured. He gives the bullpen a night off, and relaxes his teammates, as they know a run or 2 will be enough. There is something to be said for consistency, and being consistently great is Roy Halladay.

The Brewers will counter the Phillies leading Cy Young contender with Shawn Marcum (12-5 3.11). Marcum is having a solid season, but is actually more effective on the road. He shut down the Phillies way back in April, but the lineup with Hunter Pence is simply much better. When playing the Phillies, there is a need for perfection, but Marcum has been up to the task of late. In 8 of his last 10 starts he has given up 2 runs or less, which he will need to keep up in this one. If there is an upset to be had, this very well could be it.

After an unbLEEviable (thanks Chas)  August, Cliff Lee (16-7 2.47) looks to continue his late push as a potential game 1 starter in the playoffs. He has won his last 7 starts, 5 of which he did not give up a run. In all 7 of those starts, Lee has gone at least 7 innings and struck out 6 batters. Simply put, the man is on top of his game, and is a bad matchup for any offense.

Randy Wolf (12-9 3.47) will face the Phillies lineup with the pressure to be perfect. He has a WHIP of 1.28 on the season, and has surrendered 20 homers this year, roughly the same amount as Halladay and Hamels put together. Wolf has a better record at home (7-3), but his ratios are the same, meaning he just benefits from run support. Counting on much more than 2 runs against Lee is a risky proposition, and expecting Wolf to shut down a playoff caliber team (something he hasn’t done in over a month) is wishful thinking.

The series wraps up on Sunday with surprise rookie Vance Worley (11-1 2.85) opposing Yovani Gallardo (15-10 3.71). When talking about Sir-Vance-A lot, one date says it all: May 29^th. That was the last time the Phillies lost a game started by Worley, an unprecedented string of victories. He has won his last 3 starts, including an impressive duel with Tim Hudson, in which the rookie showed that he had the guts to win a big game. This is the Brewers lone chance to score a few runs, but if history tells us anything, the Phillies are likely to score a few more. Gallardo has been far from the ace that the Brewers thought would lead their staff. He has had moments of greatness (8 innings – 1earned run – 9 strikeouts vs the Dodgers) but he has gotten shelled nearly as often (most recently giving up 8 earned to the Cardinals in 4.2 innings). As a right handed pitcher, he may struggle against the powerful lefties in the middle of the Phillies order. However, good Gallardo typically comes out at Miller Park, where he is 9-2. I expect this game to be decided by the bullpens, both of which are solid.

Final Word:   The Phillies don’t strikeout a lot (rank in the bottom five in total K’s) while the Brewers rely heavily on striking batters out (rank in the top 5 in strikeouts). Something has to give here, and the Phillies have won battles like this all year long

Soppe Score:   The Phightin’ Phils take 3 out of 4 from the Beer Makers. The Brewers are built like the Phillies, with a few big bats and 3 very good pitchers, but to a lesser extent. This series, and the rosters as a whole, is a bad matchup for the Brewers, no matter how good they are at home.

While I’m not trying to imply that Roy Halladay isn’t as good as everyone thinks, when it comes to the recent National League Cy Young voting, I do have a bit of a beef.

My complaint is not that Halladay’s season was undeserving of the award. Rather, it’s with the way in which he won it. That is, unanimously.

What I don’t completely understand is how all 32 voters considered him the top choice when there was another candidate who was equally deserving by most measures, and even more deserving by others. That candidate is Adam Wainwright.

Of course I’m not going to make such a statement without backing it up. So, let’s start by looking at the mainstream statistics, the three categories commonly considered the Triple Crown of pitching.

W-L record: Halladay 21-10, Wainwright 20-11

ERA: Wainwright – 2.42, Halladay – 2.44

Strikeouts: Halladay – 219, Wainwright – 213

Pretty even, right? Halladay’s six-strikeout edge and slightly better won-lost record, while playing for a team that won 7% more of its games than Wainwright’s, certainly isn’t justification for the wide margin by which he won the award.

So, let’s take a slightly deeper look. Halladay is lauded for his 7.30 K/BB ratio, and compared to Wainwright’s 3.80, this appears to be a pretty big edge, on the surface. But, taking a closer look, Wainwright actually averaged 8.32 strikeouts per nine innings to Halladay’s 7.86. So, obviously this means Wainwright had a considerably higher walk rate (2.18 to 1.08). However, Halladay made up for this by giving up more hits than Wainwright.

In fact, looking at opponents’ batting statistics versus each pitcher, Halladay yielded a higher batting average (.245 to .224), which effectively canceled out Wainwright’s higher walk rate, as evidenced by their almost identical opponents’ on-base percentages (Wainwright – .274, Halladay – .271). But, Halladay not only got hit harder, he also gave up considerably more home runs (24 to 15). This gives Wainwright a considerable edge in opponents’ slugging percentage (.330 to .373) and OPS (.604 to .645).

Let’s dig a little further and look at a few SABRmetric statistics. I’m providing simplistic explanations regarding each, rather than attempting to explain how each is calculated, which would be quite difficult.

ERC (Component ERA) measures a pitcher’s ERA based on the hits and walks he allowed, rather than actual runs: Wainwright – 2.38, Halladay – 2.69

DIPS ERA (Defense-Independent ERA) attempts to measure a pitcher’s ERA independent of the defense behind him: Wainwright – 2.97, Halladay – 3.09

ERA+ is park-adjusted and league-adjusted ERA (expressed as a percentage relative to the average pitcher): Halladay – 165 (65% better than average), Wainwright – 161 (61% better than average)

As you can see, Wainwright outshines Halladay in two of three SABRmetric measures that attempt to normalize a pitcher’s ERA, one of them by a pretty wide margin.

So, where does Halladay have a clear advantage over Wainwright? Well, he pitched more innings (250 2/3 to 230 1/3), and threw more complete games (9 to 5) and more shutouts (4 to 2). His other considerable edge is in the fact that he’s Roy Halladay.

Is he overrated? Well, not really. But, did he receive preferential treatment in this year’s Cy Young voting due to his reputation? Quite possibly, yes. Did he have a season that was deserving of the award? Of course, but Adam Wainwright was just as, if not more, deserving and how he managed to earn zero first-place votes is a question I can’t possibly answer.

Can anyone else on the pine inform me?

By Aaron M Smith

If a lawyer was arguing that 2010 was the ” Year of the Pitcher”, they wouldn’t have to look any further than the National League Championship for Exhibit A. The 2010 National League Championship features the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants. While the runs may be limited in this series, pitching will certainly not be – as both teams feature exceptional starting pitching. Let’s take a look at both teams:

Philadelphia Phillies:

The Phillies made quick  work of the Cincinnati Reds, winning in 3 games. The starting pitching of Phillies was the star of the series, holding the high powered Reds to four runs and a .124 average in the 3 games. Roy Halladay started the playoffs off with an “are-you-freaking-kidding-me? ” moment by pitching a no-hitter in Game 1. Cole Hamels was just as dominant in Game 3 with a complete game shutout. The question remains the Phillies offense which was relatively quiet during the NLDS. Sure, the Phillies scored 7 runs in Game 2, but they were also assisted by 4 Reds errors.  The Phillies bullpen should be rested, as the starters have done most of the work. If  runs are a few, the bullpen will be called upon to get them to the World Series.  Will they answer the call?

San Francisco Giants:

Just how good is the San Francisco Giants starting pitching?  “The Freak” – Tim Lincecum was dominant in his playoff debut. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez were just as good, with Sanchez striking out 11 in Game 3. Almost as certain as Brent Musberger using the phrase, “Folks, we are watching the freshman grow up before our very eyes”, the MLB baseball playoffs is almost certain to introduce us to a new face in the game. This year it is Madison Bumgarner.  The rookie was dominant for the Giants late in the regular season and Game 4 vs. the Atlanta Braves was no different. Bumgarner allows the Giants to pitch Lincecum on normal rest – something huge over the life of the playoffs. The Giants hitters remain the key for this team’s push to the World Series. While not overpowering against Braves pitchers, they scored enough to support their pitchers during the NLDS. They will need more offense to get past the Phillies. But the Giants hit Phillies starters pretty well during the regular season, scoring 24 runs over 45 innings (4.80 era). Can they carry that success into the NLCS?

Prediction:  Runs will be few and far between, which means this series comes down to the bullpens. The Giants bullpen is better. Giants in 7. Yes, you heard it here first.

Have a Prediction? Let’s hear it.

The Phillies didn’t land Roy Halladay, but they have officially declared themselves the team to beat in the National League with Wednesday’s signing of reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee. The Phils now have the unusual problem of having too much starting pitching, with Lee and the also recently acquired Pedro Martinez joining Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton in the rotation, with J.A. Happ and Rodrigo Lopez likely moving to the bullpen.

Speaking of Halladay, according to Toronto General Manager J.P. Ricciardi, trade talks involving the Blue Jays right-hander are dead, but the club remains willing to listen to offers. So, did we learn anything new from that statement? Most likely not, but with today’s trade deadline of 4 p.m. ET fast approaching, it appears that the Jays are unlikely to move him, with the only real contenders for his services being the Red Sox and the Dodgers.

Halladay may be staying put, but Jarrod Washburn isn’t, with the Tigers acquiring him from the Mariners today in a move that improves their status as the favorite to win the AL Central, although the Twins and White Sox still might have something to say about that. Washburn appears to have resurrected his career this year, posting an 8-6 record with a 2.64 ERA, and is well on his way to his best season since he was the ace of the 2002 World Series champion Anaheim Angels staff.

The Red Sox may not get Halladay, but it seems unlikely that they’re not going to add another bat by the deadline, with the rumor mill saying that they’re close to a deal with the Indians that would bring Victor Martinez to Boston, in exchange for Clay Buchholz. Martinez has split time between catcher and first base for Cleveland this year, but it’s unclear how much the Red Sox would plan on using him behind the plate. The deal would make Adam LaRoche expendable, however, so the word is that they’re looking to find a taker for him as well.

The Twins, in dire need to improve upon a weak offensive middle infield, have worked out a deal with the Athletics to bring Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota. He’ll likely replace Nick Punto (.208 BA, .568 OPS) at shortstop, with Brendan Harris already pushing Alexi Casilla (.171 BA, .474 OPS) out of second base duties.

In a couple of smaller, but not insignificant deals involving left-handed relief pitchers, the Dodgers bolstered their bullpen by acquiring George Sherrill from the Orioles, and the Pirates dealt John Grabow to the Cubs.

By the time you read this, of course, a few of the questions regarding potential trades will already be answered. What are your opinions on these recent developments in Major League Baseball? Please share with the bench and let’s get the discussion started.

         It is a deadly syndrome that is starting to sweep Major League baseball. There has been only one case known until recently and that case has existed only in Canada. But now rumors are circulating , that the syndrome is slowly spreading across the United States.  It is the Roy Halladay Syndrome.

Possibly the best pitcher in all of Major League Baseball – the Toronto Blue Jays are rumored to have Halladay on the trading block. Check that – the rumor is no longer fiction, as General Manager J.P. Riccardi is fact dangling Halladay in front of all the General Managers throughout baseball. With the likely scenario that the Blue Jays will not be able to re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season – Riccardi is left with the only option left available – trade him for prospects After all – who wouldn’t want to add a pitcher like Roy Halladay? Let’s look at his resume:

 2002-2008:

Wins: 113

Loses: 49

Complete Game: 37

Avg. Innings Pitched: 210

Avg. ERA: 2.50

 Clearly, Halladay has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game over the past 7 years. Averaging 210 innings, Halladay is almost a day off for your bullpen – eating up innings with quality starts. The 37 complete games is especially impressive considering teams use of pitch counts and specialized bullpens

 But what will it take to get Halladay? Certainly a player of this caliber will not come cheap. Expect Riccardi and the Blue Jays to demand a king’s ransom. Players that are major league ready will be in the discussion. So will the phrase – “Top Prospects”. It will be the internal struggle that teams will undergo – are you willing to sacrifice your future for the present? Trading for Halladay could amount to no more then a year and a half rental. So a team would have to ask itself if this trade would put them over the top and bring a World Series championship home. And they will have to answer honestly to that question as well.

 But who has the Halladay Syndrome? Some teams have it already (see Philadelphia Phillies). Some teams wish their location could allow the Syndrome to exist (see Pittsburgh Pirates).  Some teams probably want it, but can’t because they are in the same division (New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox). But be very careful, as the Halladay Syndrome can be deadly. If applied correctly by the right General Manager, the trade could go down in history as one of the best. But if the Syndrome sets in on the wrong team – well – a silver platter will be delivered shortly after.

 Let’s hear your thoughts:

To fill the void, I considered borrowing from my own blog and posting about my recent trip to Turner Field in Atlanta, the 30th major league park I’ve visited in my lifetime. That total actually includes 10 stadiums that are no longer active, so I still have a ways to go to get to all of the current ones. But, as I was thinking about re-writing it a bit to make it more suitable for this site, I got another idea.

Yesterday, Randy Johnson became the 24th pitcher in major league history to notch his 300th win. A lot has been written and discussed about the near-extinction of the 300-game winner. Many think that Johnson may be the last of a dying breed, that the nature of today’s game is making it virtually impossible for a pitcher to accumulate this many victories. Could this be true? Will there ever be a 300-game winner again? One thing’s for sure…if it does happen, we’re going to have to wait quite some time until we see it again, especially considering we’ve just seen four guys get there in the past six years.

Following Johnson on the career victories list, among “active” pitchers—I use the term loosely because two of them haven’t thrown a pitch in the majors this season—are Jamie Moyer (250 wins/46 years old), Andy Pettitte (220/37), Pedro Martinez (214/37), John Smoltz (210/42), Tim Wakefield (184/42), Bartolo Colon (153/36) and Livan Hernandez (151/34). Barring a miracle, none of these players has even the slightest chance of reaching the milestone.

In my opinion, the three pitchers with the greatest chances of reaching 300 are Roy Halladay (140/32), CC Sabathia (122/28) and Johan Santana (116/30). Actually, Sabathia will turn 29 in July, so he’s really only one year younger than Santana and three younger than Halladay, both of whom had birthdays within the past few months.

Despite the fact that Sabathia is younger and has more wins, I consider Santana to be the leading candidate to be the game’s next 300-game winner. Since his first season as a full-time starter—2004—Santana has earned 86 wins in five seasons, an average of 17.2 per year. Sabathia has won 74 in the same time frame, although he has really begun to peak over the last three years.

Sabathia has been a regular starter since the age of 20. That’s more than eight full seasons, thus accounting for his current advantage. On the other hand, being under 30 and having just signed a long-term deal with a team that almost certainly will give him plenty of opportunity to be a consistent big-time winner is a factor that weighs in his favor.

After some injury troubles in his late 20s, Halladay has remained healthy for the past three full seasons. Still, if he wins 12 more games this year, then averages 18 over the next five years, this would put him at 242 at the age of 38. It would then take 4-5 more solid years after that to get to 300. So, I’m considering him the biggest long shot of the three.

If Santana wins 10 more this year, then averages 17 over the next six years, this leaves him at 228 at 36 years old. Even based on these more conservative estimates than those I used for Halladay, he would then be within striking distance if he puts together a couple more good years followed by a few solid ones. This still makes him a long shot, but not nearly the long shot that Halladay is.

Regardless, it’s going to be at least 10 or more years until someone even gets a whiff of the 300 mark. So, once again I’ll ask the question…will there ever be another 300-game winner? Who do you think has the best chance to do it?

It’s only May, and are the Blue Jays pushing the panic button? Looking to keep pace in the AL East the Jays used ace Roy Halladay in relief last night. Toronto topped the Phillies 6-5. Halladay pitched two and a third and got a no decision. Halladay takes the hill tomorrow against the Halos.

The Red Sox have had enough of Ryan Braun. The Brewers’ rookie went yard three times this weekend at Fenway.

The Brewers might be the only team in Major League history to have three guys who were once retired (Salomon Torres, Brian Shouse, and Gabe Kapler) and two sons of former major leaguers (Tony Gwynn and Prince Fielder) on the same roster.

It took a pitch out, but Jacoby Ellsbury finally got caught. After starting his MLB career with 25 consecutive attempts the Sox rookie was thrown out by Jason Kendall in Sunday’s game. Tim Raines still holds the record with 27 stolen bases to start his career before being thrown out.

Hold the phone the Cincinnati Reds have won six in a row!

How’s this for a stat: the Lakers scored 30+ in nine quarters versus the Jazz.

Champions League final is Wednesday. I’ll be bustin’ it home to catch the second half.

Lastly – a stunning visual to leave you with. Leave it to the New York Daily News to break the story that Jason Giambi has donned his favorite gold thong to break his recent hitting woes. Hmmm….hmmm….hmmmmmmm. That’s one to think about.