Yes, I realize that this feels eerily similar to the 2007-2008 season, where the Giants defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl. But the result will be different this time around, and let me tell you why by disproving some fallacies of this years rematch.

Statement: How can you pick against Eli Manning? In 2012 it’s pretty simple, you can’t spell elite without Eli.

Rebuttal: It is true that Eli Manning has had a great season that resembles his older brother. But that doesn’t change the fact that he is the second best quarterback in this game. On the season, Tom Brady has thrown for eight more touchdowns despite playing in one game less. Not only has Brady had a better 2011-2012 season, his past achievements (Three Super Bowls) speak for themselves.

Statement: The Giants have the best trio of wide receivers in the NFL. Even if you like Brady more than Manning, the Giants receiving core is good enough to overcome the difference.

Rebuttal: By definition the Giants have a great receiving core, but I’m more worried about pass catchers. Statistically speaking, the combination of Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez has been superior compared to Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham, and Hakeem Nicks. The Patriots combined for 3,806 yards and 33 touchdowns and 16 regular season games, while the Giants accounted for 3,261 yards and 20 scores.

Statement: Rob Gronkowski certainly had a great year, but that was at full strength. The All Pro tight end has missed practice the last two weeks with a high ankle sprain and cannot possibly be the same force he has been all season.

Rebuttal: Valid point but Gronk isn’t like most. The physical specimen brings back memories of Terrell Owens in 2004 when playing with a fractured fibula. TO received a cortisone shot and was the best receiver on the field as he caught nine balls for 122 yards. This injury may keep Gronkowski from being 100% , however, if the past has taught us anything, doctors have the ability to ‘hide’ an injury in a one game season.  Brady will continue to look for Gronkowski and he should have a TO-esque game on Sunday.

Statement: The Giants are streaking right now, reminiscent of the Packers 2010-2011 run. They struggled early in the season but have been unbeatable in the last six weeks.

Rebuttal: I’ve got two issues with this train of thought. First, the Patriots had won 18 straight games previous to being defeated by these Giants in the 2007 Super Bowl. No team has ever been hotter than 18 consecutive wins in the history of the NFL. Second, the Patriots could be considered the hotter of the two teams heading into Sunday’s game. They have rattled off ten consecutive wins and while the Giants have recorded more style points, this isn’t the BCS and that doesn’t help.

Statement: Julian Eldeman played quarterback in college and receiver first few years in NFL; What is he doing playing defensive back for the Patriots? One of the Giants studs will create a mismatch and exploit this weakness all night.

Rebuttal: Eldeman guarding receivers is far from ideal and obviously not how Bill Belichick drew it up. But I trust “The Hoodie” to put his utility man in a position to succeed as a result of two weeks of preparation. Recall, that the Patriots won Super Bowls with Troy Brown playing on both sides of the ball. Plain and simple Belichick doesn’t get out-coached and will find a way to make the Eldeman experiment work.

Silly Stat: Make sure to watch the coin toss this year as the NFC has won 14 straight. If this trend continues, the Patriots are in an even better position to win, as the AFC has won nine of those 14 Super Bowls.

Soppe Score: The Brady/Belichick era earns a fourth ring with a 34-24 victory.

By Kyle Soppe

And then there were 12.

We start the 2012 NFL playoffs with four games that should all be entertaining. The AFC games figure to be running and defense oriented while the NFC games look to be QB oriented, where the team with the ball last may win. Here’s a quick preview of Saturday’s and Sunday’s games, and what each team has to do to win.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

Why the Bengals can win: The Bengals have a workhorse in Cedric Benson, and need to establish a run game early and often. The Texans QB woes are well documented, so stopping the run is key for the Bengals. The Bengals offense is more explosive than the Texans, giving them the edge in potential to overcome a slow start

Why the Texans will win: Arian Foster and Ben Tate are punching every defense in the mouth, and I don’t see that stopping this week. TJ Yates figures to be back in action, and has proven capable of managing games. They have the two toughest match ups (Andre Jonson and Foster) and that should be enough to win a seemingly low scoring game. They defend opposing TE’s as good as anybody in the league, so stopping AJ Green is the only challenge.

Soppe Score: Texans 24-17

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Why the Broncos can win: They have Tim Tebow and a dominate running game. Willis McGahee is ready for 25 carries and is very good in short yardage situations. The Broncos can keep this game in the teens by holding the ball for 40+ minutes. They are trending in the wrong decision, and need things to go their way in the early going.

Why the Steelers will win: They are simply the better and more experienced team. Injuries will come back to haunt them, but not this week. Big Ben is playing at 70% strength, but has the guts to make enough plays this weekend. I like Issac Redman more than most, and believe that he can approach 100 rushing yards with Mendenhall (torn ACL) out for the season. Troy Polamalu figures to spy Tebow, and I trust him to contain the most polarizing player in sports.

Soppe Score: Steelers 20-16

Detriot Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Why the Lions can win: Matthew Stafford is going to be an elite QB sooner rather than later, and he can use the 2012 playoffs as a spring board. The SAints pass game is great, but the Lions have the games best receiver in Calvin Johnson. Detroit’s lack of a consistent run game shouldn’t hurt them in what figures to be a shootout. A motivated Suh chasing Brees could disrupt the Saints high flying act.

Why the Saints will win: Drew Brees isn’t satisfied with the NFL single season passing record. They have the most complete offense in the game, and the leagues top TE in Jimmy Graham. Mark Ingram is out for the season, but Christopher Ivory has stepped into the featured back role nicely. Darren Sproles is often the X factor, as he is a mismatch every week. The Saints defense is opportunistic enough and figures to make a big play or two.

Soppe Score: Saints 35-31

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Why the Falcons can win: Michael Turner can control the clock, even given the ball consistently. Matt Ryan hasn’t really progressed the way most projected, but he is good enough to lead a team. Roddy White is an elite talent, and Julio Jones is a nice Robin to White’s Batman. Tony Gonzalez is in the twilight of his career, but far from finished. Atlanta is playing as good as any team in the NFL at this very moment.

Why the Giants will win: Eli Manning has been the best QB outside of the big three (Rodgers, Brady, Brees). Victor Cruz has emerged as the teams top target. The pro bowl snub figures to make voters regret their decision by continuing to produce at an elite level. Hakeem Nicks is still a very good WR, and is dangerous near the goal line. Their two headed running tandem of Jacobs and Bradshaw gives the G-men the ability to physically dominate. This will be the weekends top game.

Soppe Score: Giants 27-24

Every team has played 14 games, and here are how I rank the NFL’s 32 teams. The wild card battles are neck and neck, as is the division race in the NFC East. The final weeks will not lack drama, especially week 17 when divisional games dominate the NFL schedule. My preseason pick was Green Bay vs Baltimore in the 2012 Super Bowl. Who do you think will win the big one? Will the Colts get hot and lose the rights to the number one pick (the Rams play San Fran and Pittsburgh the final two weeks)?

Passing wins games, but only for the elite

By Kyle Soppe

We’ve been hearing that 2011-2012 is the “year of the quarterback” from various sport shows and analysts. We’ve seen ESPN specials based around this premise, and it is accurate to state that we are seeing the position played at an all time great level by a few select individuals. But I believe we are over generalizing due to the media exposure of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. In fact, I’ll argue that running the football is still the way to succeed in the NFL, especially if you don’t have one of the aforementioned signal callers.

The spread offense, five receiver sets, and the undefeated Packers are all great story lines and make for entertaining television. This NFL season opened with a shootout between Rodgers and Brees, in which the duo combined for 731 yards and six touchdowns. The season opening MNF game Tom Brady embarrassed the Dolphins to the tune of 517 yards and four scores. Since then, a national audience has been treated to countless great performances by one of these three, highlighted by a primetime dismantling of the Colts and Giants by Brees. In stand alone games, the Saints QB orchestrated flawless offensive execution, totaling 111 points scored and grabbing national headlines. Today’s media focus on the elite performers tells us that that is what wins in “new era” of the NFL. But is it really true? Do you need a QB that is capable of putting up video game type numbers to lead your team?

No.

These three quarterbacks do succeed, but it’s because they are rare talents that happen to be playing at the same time. This is still your dad’s NFL; a successful running game more often than not determines the result of the football game. Take the last four weeks (60 games) as a reasonable sample size. I also prefer weeks 10-13 because teams have established offensive identities; what works for them and what doesn’t. Over that time span, there have been 28 running backs to rush for at least 100 yards, as compared to 22 quarterbacks who eclipsed 300 yards. The fact that more teams have run for the respective benchmark indicates the importance of a stable and consistent ground game.

Not sold? Didn’t think so.

What if I told you that the teams that featured a running back who gained at least 100 yards won 79% of their games? By the same token, teams with a QB totaling over 300 yards won only 55% percent of the time. The excuse can be made that teams tend to pass when digging themselves out of a hole, and that’s true. But the same teams (take the Colts against the Patriots last week for example) run the ball early in an attempt to shorten the game.

Those numbers include the remarkable success of the Packers, Patriots, and Saints. In the past four weeks, the terrific trio has won all seven games in which their signal caller accounted for at least 300 yards through the air. This means that if an NFL team throws for 300 yards, but doesn’t call Green Bay, New England, or New Orleans home, they have won only 29% of the time over the last month.

You can call it the year of the QB all you want, but I’m thinking of it as the same NFL, just with three exceptional talents. Wilt Chamberlain averaged 50 points a game in a season, but was the NBA all of a sudden a league that featured no defense? The Texas Rangers led the league in hitting categories, but was this past MLB season the year of the batter?

“SportsCenter digs the long ball [pass], but the rushing attack wins games.”

I challenge you, loyal readers, to view the picture below and provide a captivating caption that will cause “the shores a-crowding” with “people all exulting.” Should you provide the wittiest of captions, for you the flag will be flung and the bugles will trill.

This week, we have a little confusion amongst referees in the Steelers-Titans tilt in Pittsburgh:

You’ve got the context, now make like the father of free verse and create the best caption you can in the comments below.

"Not happy. I'll help this franchise. Back to Baltimore or maybe the CFL if we don't get a W this week ... Does it look like I'm joking?

By Kyle Soppe

Two unbeaten teams remain in the NFL, and it figures to stay that way as both teams are home this week. Green Bay gets the Rams, and while they are off a bye week, they are simply less talented. The Lions face a tougher task in the 49ers, but the game being played at home is huge for Detroit.

A couple of prop bets to give you something extra to root for. Higher total: Calvin Johnson points vs Dolphins: Brady + Romo pass attempts vs Al Davis age. Over/Under: 3 wins for AFC North teams this week: 4 “Eli faces”

Saint Louis (+15) @ Green Bay – Packers 31-17

San Francisco @ Detroit (-4) – Lions (aka the “Megatron’s) 27-20

Jacksonville (+12) @ Pittsburgh – Steelers 24-14

Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Washington – Eagles 31-24

Carolina @ Atlanta (-3.5) – Falcons 27-17

- Note: Falcons are 1-4 ATS while Newton has the Panthers at 4-0-1 ATS

Indianapolis (+7) @ Cincinnati – Colts 21-20

Buffalo @ New York (-3) – Giants 24-17

Houston (+7.5) @ Baltimore – Ravens 24-20

Cleveland (+5.5) @ Oakland – Browns 21-17

Dallas (+7) @ New England – Patriots 31-27

New Orleans (-4) @ Tampa Bay – Saints 28-23

Minnesota @ Chicago – Da Bears 24-14

Miami @ New York – Jets 24-13

ATS (year) 40-36-1

Straight Winners (year) 49-28

Out of 13 games, I’ve the road team winning ATS in 8. As Drew mentioned in the podcast, we’ve got a match up of unbeaten teams ATS in San Fran and Detroit. Desperation strikes in Philly and Atlanta, as both teams could use a solid win to restore confidence.  For those interested, we have had only 2 states in the past 31 years hold both the MLB and NFL titles at the same time (1979- Pittsburgh and 2004- Boston/New England). The Brewers and Tigers are still alive and kickin’ in baseball, while both states have unbeaten NFL teams. It’s early, but it’s worth noting.

AP Photo/David Duprey

By Paul Casey Gotham

Please hold on while the train is moving…

Eight years and fifteen games later the Buffalo Bills triumphed over the New England Patriots in a manner few thought possible: the Bills matched and trumped the Pats offensive prowess. Despite allowing 387 yards through the air, an opportunistic Bills defense made plays when they needed picking four Tom Brady passes on the afternoon.  The four picks equal how many Brady amassed during the entire 2010 season.

Buffalo overcame an 18-point halftime deficit for the second time in as many weeks – a feat no other NFL franchise has accomplished. Ryan Fitzpatrick connected on 27-40 passes for two touchdowns.

Interesting to note that the Pats were without their starting tight end – Aaron Hernandez while Bills TE, Scott Chandler, scored another touchdown.

With the win, the Bills improve to 3-0. Last week’s victory over the Oakland Raiders is looking better since the Silver and Black clipped the New York Jets. The Bills are relevant for the first time in more than a decade.  Orchard Park is alive again on Sundays.  One might even suggest that the Bills are gaining momentum. Sure, it is early but there is a train that is moving and a stadium “picking up souls who don’t know where they’re going.”

We’re going streaking

Different from years past the number of undefeated teams is shrinking quickly. Along with the Bills only the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers and their NFC North Division rival Detroit Lions stand at 3-0. The Washington Redskins put their 2-0 ledger on the line tonight.

A good man always has to know his limitations

Mother Nature has been making a name for herself in the college game. The grand old lady is getting some tongue-in-cheek Heisman recognition.  She grabbed everyone’s attention yesterday in Charlotte, North Carolina when the Jacksonville Jaguars paid a visit to the Carolina Panthers.

The Jags and Panthers played “amid a torrential downpour that slowed the game to a crawl and made the field a slick puddle-filled mess.”  From out of these conditions came Carolina’s first victory on the season and the first-ever NFL triumph for Heisman-Trophy winner, Cam Newton.  Slowed by the conditions, Newton connected on 18 of 34 passes for 158 yards. But two big statistics were Newton’s lack of interceptions and sacks.  In the rookie’s first two games (both losses) he threw for more yards (422 versus Arizona and 432 against the Pack), but he also acquired more negative stats (one int and four sacks versus the Cards and three ints. and four sacks to Green Bay). Sure, it is early in Newton’s career. He went through a condensed rookie training camp. Maybe Mother Nature and Dirty Harry can help the Heisman winner with his tutelage.

Do you really want to hurt me?

In the category of head-scratchers, the depleted New York Giants defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 29-16. The Eagles grabbed headlines in the off-season by assembling what some referred to as a “dream team.” With Mario Manningham, Osi Umenyiora and Domenik Hixon on the shelf, the Giants took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and rallied for 15 in the fourth quarter to give Andy Reid and crew a few nightmares.

Michael Vick grabbed headlines with his post-game comments.

“Why? You all see. There’s no reason for it. I’m not going to go into a big dissertation about why I’m not getting the calls. … The refs have to do their jobs as well. … Everybody seen the game. I’m on the ground constantly, all the time. All the highlights, watching film every time I throw the ball, I’m on the ground.

“I don’t know why I don’t get the 15-yard penalties like everyone else does. I am not complaining. I am just pointing it out and hopefully someone will do something about it. … I’m not blaming the referee. Let’s not get it twisted. Everybody on the field has to do their job. … I just want them to take notice.”

Was the hit on Vick excessive? Probably

Should there have been a flag on the play where Vick was injured? Sure.

The refs need to take notice?

Vick might want to give Chicago QB Jay Cutler (who has been sacked more times than an Idaho spud) a call.

Until then, Vick just sounds like …

A round of cold ones

These guys earned some liquid refreshment from the Pine. And there is none better than the home brew:

NY Giants Aaron Ross – made two interceptions directly leading to 14 points.

The Buffalo Bills defense – which picked off as many Tom Brady passes yesterday as the NE QB had intercepted all of last year.

Minnesota’s Jared Allen – for his three quarterback sacks.

Baltimore’s Ray Lewis and Chicago’s Lance Briggs – 10 tackles a piece.

Baltimore’s Joe Flacco – 389 passing yards.

Oakland’s Darren McFadden – 171 rushing yards.

New England’s Wes Welker – 217 receiving yards.

MNF

Big times in Big D tonight. The ‘Skins put their unblemished record on the line. Willie? Ohhhhhh Willllllllie? You got anything to say about this?

Got any NFL Splinters? Share them here.

By Paul Casey Gotham

Week one of the National Football League is almost in the books and time to throw around the pigskin of hindsight.

What have you done lately

Seven first-place teams from last season ventured on to the gridiron yesterday, and six found the new season not so welcoming. In fact five (Atlanta, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Seattle) of last year’s top shelf flavors lost by a combined score 178-50.

Actually, can we really count the Seahawks as a first-place team?  Is it the return of Coach Fredo?

Most conspicuous among the losers was Indianapolis. The Colts fell 34-7 in a game which wasn’t even that close. Indy coach Jim Caldwell won’t have to worry about being asked to speak for any investment firms. If his financial plan is anything like his game plan, he might want to think about diversifying the portfolio. Pull out one piece, and the Colts made a Humpty Dumpty-like tumble. The Colts were 1-of-11 on third-down conversions.

Pittsburgh losing is one thing. The Steelers getting punched in the mouth?

The Baltimore Ravens out-rushed the Steelers 170-66. 170-66? And a final score of 35-7?

Yes, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steeler receivers out-gained the Ravens through the air 280-224, but at the cost of three interceptions. All the while Joe Flacco had a mechanical-type game going 17-29 for 224 yards and ZERO picks.

In a battle of former Pac 10 coaching rivals Jim Harbaugh, in his first pro game on the sideline, out-dueled Pete Carroll. Remember when Pete questioned Harbaugh and the Cardinal running up the score? After trailing by 16 at half, Carroll rallied the troops and pulled within two only to let Tedd Ginn gain 157 yards on two touches.

Atlanta’s Falcons, a sexy Super Bowl pick, looked rather flightless against the Bears. Matt Ryan threw for 319 yards but ZERO touchdowns in a 30-12 loss.

The Philadelphia Eagles were the only 2010 first-place team to earn a victory besting another first-place team, the St. Louis Rams 31-13.  For those keeping score at home Joe Flacco (29) threw fewer passes  than Vick (32). Flacco (17) completed more than Vick (14) and for more yards 224-187. But yes Vick out-rushed Flacco 98-0. No real reason to compare the two other than Flacco and Vick play the same position in the same league.

Hotel Yorba

If you had a Rip-Van-Winkle-like snooze for the last 15 years or so and woke up mid-afternoon yesterday, you might think the K-Gun was alive and kicking in Western New York. The Buffalo Bills hammered the Kansas City Chiefs (who finished in first place last year) in a fashion not seen in these parts since Jim Kelly was under center.  Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 133 passer rating is at the top of the heap and led the Bills to a 41-7 triumph. Not since 1992 have the Bills scored 40 or more in the opener. Fitzpatrick’s leading receiver? Tight end Scott Chandler. Holy Pete Metzelaars! It’s been a while since the Bills had a threat for a tight end.

If nothing else, Chan Gailey proved he can pick a game-one quarterback. Not always the easiest of tasks to master. Gailey did have some added motivation. The guy on the opposite sideline, Todd Haley, fired him in 2009.

Haley has a history of friction with his offensive coordinators. With Charlie Weis running the offense last year the Chiefs went 10-6.  Haley and Weis parted ways in the off-season. Yesterday, Chief QB, Matt Cassell managed 119 yards in the air. Kent Dorfman could represent KC as its mascot because all that offense can do is “Flounder.”

After going 0-4 in the pre-season, and fans making much ado about it, Haley better take a page from the Bills of old and circle the wagons. Either that or his office will be like the Hotel Yorba – “where all they got inside is vacancy.”

We’re so pretty. Oh so pretty…

It’s only September and Tony Romo’s carriage turned into a pumpkin. Usually, the not-so-apparent heir to the lineage of “Dandy” Don Meredith, Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman reserves these performances for late in the season. Pretty boy got things off to a rousing start playing a significant role in the Cowpokes 27-24 loss to the New York Jets – this after Dallas took a 24-10 lead early in the fourth. Romo turned over the ball twice in the final ten minutes. Throw in a delay of game penalty and an illegal procedure infraction, and the ‘Pokes handed over a victory.

Romo is not the only one to blame. The Cowboys ran the ball just 26 times while slinging the skin on 36 occasions. If your playbook calls for more passes than runs, you might want an efficient passer under center…especially when you have the lead.

Stop Making Sense

Opening weekend gives us the annual two games on Monday Night. Why does this only happen once a year? An east-coast game at 7 p.m. and a west-coast game at 9 p.m.. Is that really complicated?

Your thoughts on the first weekend of play?

Who needs Christmas when you've got the NFL season on its way?

By Kyle Soppe

We are only a matter of days away from the first Sunday of the 2011-2012 NFL season. Here I preview the top 5 games of the weekend, and predict every game on the slate.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens(-2.5) – These two divisional rivals square off in an important season opener that could go a long way toward determining who earns a home playoff game. They split last year’s series, playing two very hard fought games that came down to the wire. Both teams feature elite running backs with diverse styles, but neither has had much success in this rivalry. Joe Flacco’s game is maturing fast, and I believe he is ready to perform equally to that of his counterpart, Big Ben Roethlisberger. He has more receiving weapons in his arsenal, and should be able to manage a few successful long drives in this game. The underrated addition this offseason for the Ravens was Vonta Leach, who gives them the physical force to bang with Pittsburgh’s aggressive style. This old fashioned, bloody their nose game ends with the Ravens getting the last laugh, in a 20-17 win,

Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) @ Houston Texans  – With an ailing Peyton Manning, Houston has their best chance to find themselves atop the division. The Texans aren’t fully healthy either, with Arian Foster battling a hamstring injury, but they are more equipped to handle life without their All Pro. Indy struggles stopping the running game, so expect the Texans to pound the ball, regardless of who is in the backfield. If the Colts decide to stack the box, Andre Johnson will make them pay dearly with big plays. A healthy Manning and this is a coin flip, but without the 4 time MVP anywhere near full health, the Texans finally beat the Colts: 31-24.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Chicago Bears – Two division winners from a year ago that are headed in very different directions. The Bears won 11 games last year, but the schedule turned out to be quite favorable, and the record doesn’t reflect their true talent level. The Falcons, however, are on the upswing with stars like Roddy White and Michael Turner pacing their offense. Young Matt Ryan is among the games most promising QB’s, and will benefit from the addition of rookie WR Julio Jones. Da Bears can’t score enough to keep up with the high flying Falcons: Atlanta wins going away 31-17.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-6) – Unfortunately, when NFC West teams do battle, we are forced to crown a winner. Seattle figures to struggle with new QB Tavaris Jackson at the helm, and the ever inconsistent Marshawn Lynch at running back. Mike Williams and Sidney Rice is an underrated receiving duo, but with a quarterback who has a hard time throwing spirals, let alone hitting covered receivers, their talent will be underutilized. The 49ers have a few playmakers in Vernon Davis and Frank Gore, and that should be enough to win this one. No real winner in this game: Seahawks lose 10-20.

Dallas Cowboys (+4) @ New York Jets – The Jets talk a big game, but I like the Cowboys to bounce back from a rough 2010. Felix Jones will provide balance, allowing Tony Romo to find his talented trio of pass catchers in Jason Witten, Miles Austin, and Dez Bryant. The J-e-t-s play as solid a defense as anybody, but I am not too sold on their offense and Mark Sanchez. Demarcus Ware will be in the backfield and around the ball all night long, forcing Sanchize into mistakes and rushed decisions. This Sunday Night game shouldn’t lack trash talking or end zone dances, with the ‘Boys getting the final one: 24-20.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – The Jamaal Charles show takes center stage: Chiefs 27-13

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – A motivated Chris Johnson will be worth the monster contract, for this week at least, and lead the Titans to a 20-14 win

Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) @ Cleveland Browns – The Dog Pound will carry the bad Browns in over the awful Bengals: 17-13. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ STL. Rams – The Eagles will remind old Rams fans of their “greatest show on turf” years, led by Kurt Warner. Birds fly away in this one: 31-14.

Detroit Lions (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Both are teams headed in the right direction. Success starts with ability to run the rock, and the Buc’s struggle at stopping the run: Lions 24-21.

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers (-9) – AP can’t do it all, and while McNabb is an improvement over past years, the Vikes can’t match the Chargers potent offense. Bolts win 35-17.

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins – The Giants get to the QB as well as any team, and run the ball effectively. Two things that the Skins will have no answer for: G-men 24-10.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) – Two new quarterbacks in this one; I trust the one with NFL experience. Larry Fitzgerald corrects QB errors, and they will run the ball efficiently: Cards 24-17.

New England (-7) @ Miami Dolphins – I like Miami to surprise a little bit this year, but not against a Belichick team with this much time to prepare. Pats win going away 31-17.

Oakland @ Denver (-3) – The Broncos have more consistent players than the Raiders, who depend on long plays. The thinner air at Mile High won’t help the Raiders speedsters. Broncos take it 28-20.

Total Record (1-0)                            Against The Spread (1-0)

I challenge you, loyal readers, to view the picture below and provide a captivating caption that will cause “the shores a-crowding” with “people all exulting.” Should you provide the wittiest of captions, for you the flag will be flung and the bugles will trill.

This week, we have the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers returning to work after the much-reported-on NFL lockout:

Photo: Morry Gash/AP courtesy of SI.com

You’ve got the context, now make like the father of free verse and create the best caption you can in the comments below.