By Paul Gotham

It is kind of hard to imagine that a region with three Big East teams (Villanova, Louisville, and Notre Dame) and two teams from the Big 12 (Baylor and Texas A&M) could have the makings for a Cinderella run. Especially, when one looks at the fact that Baylor and A&M have the chance to play third and fourth round games in Houston.  Still, Cinderella might exist in the South.

Consider this. The South region has a two seed that has lost six of its last ten. A three seed that hasn’t won a tournament game since 1950. The four seed scored 11 points in a half last weekend.

If ever there was a region set up for a lower seed to make a run, this is it. The question is which team.

On the other hand, this region might play out well for a run by the one seed – Duke.

Maybe, the first question should be what is a Cinderella? Some might say North Carolina State in 1983. The Wolfpack was a six seed. They beat Phi Slamma Jamma, but NC State is not exactly a small school.

Villanova in 1985 was a great story. They were an eight seed who beat Patrick Ewing and the Georgetown. Villanova is not a big school, but there is a rich basketball history there.

Recently, George Mason captured the hearts of many with their magical run to the Final Four in 2006.

Two years ago, tiny Davidson advanced to the Elite Eight. They fell one Stephen Curry trifecta short of beating eventual champ Kansas.

What exactly defines a Cinderella, and can it be found in the South Region?

Before searching for that team, it might be a better idea to discuss why the opportunity is there.

Suddenly, Villanova can’t get out of its own way. The Wildcats are playing like they are doing a penance. They give their opponents plenty of charity. Those personal fouls are contributing to their sliding fortunes.

Baylor as a three seed is a little confusing. If there are four regions, and a team gets a three seed, would that not suggest the team should be ranked somewhere around say 12th in the country. Not that the polls are the be all and end all or anything. It’s just that Baylor has never been any higher than 17 this year. And rightly so. The Bears have made five all-time appearances in The Dance. They lost to Purdue in the first round of the 2008 tournament.

The loss of Robbie Hummel was devastating to Purdue’s chances. That goes without saying. At one time, the Boilermakers looked like a Final Four team. Thing is, they still have enough talent – E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, and Chris Kramer – to carry them. Is 20 points in a half too much to ask for? What’s worse? Minnesota, the team that held them to 11 in a half, looked absolutely feeble the next day.

Now, here’s the other side of it. Siena is 2-2 in the last two NCAA Tournaments. The Saints led the Louisville Cardinals with less than ten minutes remaining in last year’s second round match up. Siena returns four starters from that team. Ronald Moore leads the nation in assists per game. Alex Franklin averages 16 points and eight rebounds. The Saints have four guys averaging double figures. They seamlessly switch defenses and create lay ups. The Saints are not bothered by playing on the road. They do not depend upon the three, but Clarence Jackson has hit 71 from behind the arc this year.

Purdue is in trouble.

The Boilermakers are not the only high seed in trouble.

Villanova is staring at a second round game with Richmond. The Spiders play a frustrating match up zone defense. They limit opponents to 62 points. Their field goal percentage and three-point percentage defense ranks in the nation’s top 20. Worse yet for Villanova? Richmond has great guards – Kevin Anderson was the A10 player-of-the-year and David Gonzalvez is true grit. They will stifle Villanova on the perimeter.

Then there is Notre Dame. Maybe, Purdue should study Irish game film. Since ND’s leading scorer and former Big East Player of the Year, Luke Harangody, has been injured, the Irish have played their best hoops. Now, Mike Brey and crew needs to figure out how to make the best use Harangody since he has returned.

By the way, Richmond and St. Mary’s play Thursday at 3pm. Make sure you tune in to see two contrasting styles. The Gaels score almost 80 a game. They have four players who have taken more than 100 three-point attempts – Mickey McConnell (67/ 130), Matthew Dellavedova (70/ 169), Ben Allen (43/ 110), and Clint Steindl (48/ 128). St. Mary’s has just five losses this year – by two to Vanderbilt, 11 to USC, by seven and 19 to Gonzaga, and by five to Portland. Which Gaels’ team will show up? The one that bombed Gonzaga? Or the one that was bombed by Gonzaga?

Match ups to die for: Notre Dame and anyone is intriguing. Notre Dame and Richmond? Wow! The Irish have learned to play with patience of late. Richmond forces teams to play uncomfortably patient basketball. Tory Jackson versus Kevin Anderson? That is a battle of two cagey point guards. They both pick their spots. They both know how to get the ball in the hands of the players who can where they can score.

Duke and Louisville could meet in the second round. Coach K and Rick Pitino – the last time they met, their teams staged arguably the greatest game in NCAA Tournament history. Maybe, Pitino can get Mashburn out of retirement.

Players to watch: Mason Plumlee (Duke) – everyone knows about Scheyer, Singler, and Smith. The younger Plumlee’s confidence is growing every game.

Justin Harper (Richmond) – he is a 6’10″ junior who is active on the glass, and he can slash. Think of it. He is 6’10″ and he can slash. The prospects are scary.

Isaiah Armwood (Villanova) – the freshman has shown flashes all year. The Wildcats might not be around long, so catch him while you can.

Tory Jackson (Notre Dame) – a little sad to see his career come to an end. Jackson has plenty of unrealized potential still.

Ryan Rossiter (Siena) – for the old timers out there – think Jack Sikma. It’s not pretty, but he gets the job done. Rossiter has great footwork, and he is a savvy player.

What to look for: If Villanova is the weakest two seed in the tournament, then Richmond is the strongest seven seed. Richmond, Siena, Notre Dame, and Duke in the Sweet 16 – there is very real possibility.  From there it is anyone’s guess.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

By Paul Gotham

It is that time again. Let’s hear from you readers. We had another week of stellar performances.  Pick the ONE that stands out to you, and tell us a story.

Louisville’s Kyle Kuric saved Freedom’s last stand and earned my POTW.

Kuric came off the bench and poured in 22 second-half points as the Cardinals downed No.1 Syracuse, 78-68.

Kuric averaged less than four points per game before Saturday.  That did not stop the sophomore from hitting four of six from behind the arc while leading the Cardinals to the upset.

Syracuse led at half by eight, but Kuric hit 9 of 11 shots in the second stanza.  The native of Evansville, Indiana added three rebounds, two assists, and a steal.

The win saved Louisville’s NCAA Tournament life.

Louisville plans a move to a new arena for next season, and Saturday’s send off of Freedom Hall was fitting.  Louisville teams through the years have made 35 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals won national titles in 1980 and 1986 under Denny Crum.  The Cardinals punched 23 Dance tickets with Crum leading the way.

Who gets your POTW?

By Paul Gotham

In less than 48 hours, we will be fully immersed in conference tournaments. As the regular season of college basketball ends, here is a smattering of questions to consider.

1. Does Jim Boeheim have any voodoo is in his bag of tricks? Louisville is 11-4 against Syracuse, including a Cardinal win less than a month ago. Rick Pitino seems to have a hex on his old boss’s team.

2. Can UNC make it worthwhile for ESPN? UNC at Duke is the game of the week. Did anyone see the Heels being 16-14 overall and 5-10 in the league? On paper, tonight’s game looks like a mismatch. But this rivalry is never about what is on the paper.

3. Can Purdue take a page from ND? The Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel. It appears the Fighting Irish have lost Luke Harangody for the foreseeable future. ND is catching some momentum. Can Purdue do the same?

4. Truth AND Consequences? Villanova is 4-4 in the last eight. West Virginia is 4-3 over their last seven, including a home loss to…Villanova. Will the real Wildcats and Mountaineers stand up?

5. Why is Texas in the top 25? Seven and seven since the middle of January? Somewhere, there is a Mountain West team crying foul.

6. When will Rick Barnes learn his lesson? Barnes did a great job bringing in Kevin Durant and D.J. Augustin. How is the time spent on those recruits looking right about now?

7. Does Gary Williams know the tonic? The Terps topped Duke earlier this week. They get Virginia today. Is Maryland suffering from a hangover?

8. U.C.L.A. at Arizona State…in case anyone forgot or overlooked it or cared. It would serve me right if a Pac 10 team made a run in the tournament.

9. 3s or rebounding? Mike Brey’s team has put the fight back in Fighting Irish. ND has taken three in a row in the Big East. How are they doing it? Is it the three ball? Is it their rebounding?

10. Will Richmond avoid the pothole? The Spiders rebounded from an overtime loss to Xavier by trimming Dayton. Richmond plays at Charlotte today. The 49ers will be hungry for the upset.

By Paul Gotham

Stubborn adherence to beliefs

From time to time, Crossword Pete reminds us “even a broken clock is correct twice a day.”

A loose interpretation of that wisdom explains Louisville’s win over the Syracuse Orange.

When thinking of Rick Pitino basketball, a few ideas come to mind: playing up-tempo, pressure defense, tenacious rebounding, and most of all, shooting from behind the three point arc. After all, it is Pitino who is given credit for identifying the worst shot in basketball – a foot on the line that turns a three-pointer into a deuce.

This season has been no different.

Entering play Sunday, 40 percent of Louisville’s shots came from behind the arc. This despite ranking somewhere around 220th in the nation when it comes to making trifectas.

Still, Pitino and Louisville forged ahead. The 15-9 Cardinals took 30 three pointers (Louisville took 56 total shots for the game) against the Orange. They only made nine of those attempts (30 percent), but Louisville knocked off the No. 2 Orange, 66-60 at the Carrier Dome.

Pitino and the Cardinals have now beaten the Orange the last five times the teams have met. Syracuse and Louisville close the Big East regular season on March sixth at Freedom Hall in Kentucky.

Syracuse was due for a loss. The Orange have been living dangerously of late. With Wes Johnson hobbled by a recent injury, Syracuse needed a time-out controversy to beat UConn last week. Two weeks ago, Syracuse scrambled to beat DePaul by two.

More Big East turmoil

The ‘Cuse is not the only Big East heavyweight sent to the canvas last week. Similar to the Orange, West Virginia has had a few narrow escapes this season. The Mountaineers found themselves snared in a pair of traps last week.

Pitt needed overtime to trim West Virgina, 98-95. This after Bob Huggins’s gang fell to Villanova, 82-75.  West Virginia has three one-possession wins this year and another win in overtime.

Eight days after tripping Villanova, the Georgetown Hoyas fell at Rutgers. Rochester native, Dane Miller, had 13 points and 10 rebounds as the Scarlet Knights won 71-68.  Miller scored four points in the final :25. The freshman made two free throws to give Rutgers the lead for good with ten seconds remaining.

Enough of the reputation already

During my Saturday viewing, I caught a few of those “last four in – last four out” graphics. These glimpses are intended to give us an idea which teams stand where when it comes to earning a spot in NCAA Tournament. UCLA made its way on to the “last four out.”

UCLA? Really?

The Bruins are 6-6 in the Pac 10 and 11-13 on the season. How, in the good name of John Wooden, is this Bruin team even remotely considered for a spot in the Dance? Their conference record is good for sixth in the Pac 10.

The Pac 10 deserves one team and one team only in the tournament. Nobody has fewer than eight losses amongst them. Three of the Pac 10 teams (UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon State) have losing records. Oregon is 12-12.

Can we please put the Pac 10′s reputation out of mind when picking the field of 65!

1,000 and counting

Duke’s victory over Maryland on Saturday was the 1,000th in the career of Coach Krzyzewski in Durham, North Carolina.  For 190 of those 1,000, the Blue Devils have been ranked No. 1.

Binghamton fallout

March is the time of Cinderella’s. Binghamton captured the interest of fans less than a year ago when they took the America East conference tournament and earned a spot among the 65. Eleven months later and the fallout from that team continues.

George Vecsey described the situation with the New York school. As quick as Binghamton rose from D1 entry in 2000 to a NCAA Tournament, the Bearcats fell into infamy. Coach Kevin Broadus is still on leave, and a judge recently ruled against the athletics department and a series of decisions made over the past few years.

1st Team All Casey

PG Scottie Reynolds – Villanova

SG Jordan Crawford – Xavier

SF Wesley Johnson – Syracuse

PF Al-Farouq Aminu – Wake Forest

C Greg Monroe – Georgetown

2nd Team All Casey

PG – Jon Scheyer – Duke

SG  Matt Bouldin – Gonzaga

SF  Kyle Singler – Duke

PF  Chris Wright – Dayton

C Cole Aldrich – Kansas

Got any college hoops splinters? Share them here.

’08 – ’09 Results: 31 – 6 (16 – 2 Big East) Lost in the Midwest Regional final to Michigan State, 64 -52.

Coach: Rick Pitino 190 -73 (eight season) 552 – 197 overall (23 seasons)

Key Returners:

Terrence Jennings – 4.2ppg, 2.9rpg

Samardo Samuels – 11.8ppg, 4.9rpg

Reginald Delk – 1.6ppg, .6rpg

Jerry Smith – 7.8ppg, 2.1rpg

Edgar Sosa – 7.3ppg, 1.4rpg, 2.4apg

Notable Non-Conference Tilts: 11/17 vs. Arkansas, 11/28 at UNLV, 12/16 vs. Oral Roberts

Stat of Identity: Louisville finished with 9.1 steals per game – 11th in the country.

By Paul Gotham

Rick Pitino spent the off-season with his personal life grabbing headlines. Now, is the time for the Louisville Cardinals to grab their own headlines.

Louisville led a somewhat charmed existence last year. Big East heavy weights, UConn and Pittsburgh slugged it out, and the Cardinals slid into the regular season title. Syracuse won an epic four-overtime match with the Huskies in the Big East Tournament. Two nights later, the Orange ran out of gas, and the Cardinals claimed the conference tournament crown.  For their accomplishments, the Cardinals earned a #1 seed in the East. Louisville easily dispatched Morehead State, but Siena led the Cardinals with 5:00 remaining before Louisville escaped. The Cardinals ran out of tricks two rounds later when the Michigan State Spartans proved too much.

When Louisville struggled last year, Terrence Williams or Earl Clark came to the rescue. Both of those guys now earn their paycheck in the NBA. Samardo Samuels, Terrence Jennings, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith will need to pick up the slack.

Samuels grabbed 94 offensive rebounds last season. That number could increase with the Big East departures of DeJuan Blair, Sam Young, and Hasheem Thabeet. Samuels needs to develop a back-to-basket game for the Cardinals to be successful. Opposing defenses have no need to worry about Samuels in the post. He can be defended one-on-one therefore decreasing the possibility of his teammates getting open on the perimeter. Jennings played 11 minutes a game this year. The sophomore will see more time on the floor. Can his numbers improve?

Freshman point guard, Peyton Siva, should motivate the elder Sosa. At times the senior is spectacular. Other times, Sosa seems disinterested at best. Against Providence, Sosa scored 18, pulled down 3 rebounds, and dished out 2 assists. On other occasions, like  his four-turnover performances against Lamar, Notre Dame, and Syracuse, Sosa is difficult to rely on. Pitino will need more consistency if Sosa is to be his floor general.

Smith hit 41% (54-131) from behind the arc last season. The shooting guard has watched as his scoring has gone from 8ppg as a freshman, to 10.7ppg as a sophomre, to 7.8 as a junior. Like Sosa, Smith’s consistency will be a gauge to the Cardinals’ success.

Preston Knowles hit 43% (48-111) from behind the arc. The junior will see plenty of time off the bench.

by Paul Casey Gotham

Congratulations Coach Pitino!

Your accomplishments this season have been impressive.

And the NCAA tournament selection committee has certainly taken notice: #1 Overall!  You deserve it.

After all winning the Big East regular season title is no small task.  Don’t worry we won’t mention anything about how you only had to play Pittsburgh and UConn each once.

We’ll keep that one a secret.

Hey!  You can only play the hand you’re dealt.  Right?  And you played it well.

Yeah – we’ll forget about that little debacle in Syracuse too.  It was colder than a witch’s you-know-what that day.  Sounds like a good excuse.  We know the Carrier Dome has heat and all, but that winter weather had to affect your thoroughbreds somehow.

And the Big East Tournament?  Dang!  Great stuff!  Years from now no one will remember that the Orange essentially played one more game than your Cards.

A win is a win.  Right?

Your guys got it done in Da Garden.  If you can make it there, you can make it any where!  Right?

No need to look back now.

When one scans the rest of the regions, it is hard to ignore that the committee has set you up pretty well. 

They might have even given you a free pass to play when you want.  Something like a Go to Detroit!  Go straight to Detroit.  Don’t bother passing Go.  Don’t bother with the $200.  Your reward awaits on the hardwood.

You might want to start the celebration now.

Break out the linen suit!

You might want to think about donning specs and growing facial hair.  Start referring to yourself as Harlan.  Think of it as a way to repay the committee.  Maybe KFC will take kindly to the Col. Sanders impersonation and throw some sponsorship coin at the NCAA.  It’d be a nice gesture on your part.

You’ll only need one suit this weekend.  If Huggins can wear the same suit back-to-back nights, you can too.  

Besides there won’t be any wardrobe malfunctions this weekend.  You’ll barely break a sweat.

The play-in game?  Don’t let anyone try and tell you those ponies can hang with your stallions.  Alabama State?  Morehead State?  They’re just happy to have the whole country watching while tippin’ a Guinness or two to celebrate St. Pat’s removal of snakes from Ireland.

Ohio State and Siena in the next round?  

Don’t worry about the Buckeyes.  Yeah I know they have some pretty good defensive stats.  But which team doesn’t in the Big Ten?  The only thing scarcer than a high scoring game in the Big Ten is an AIG board member with a conscience.

Kenny Hasbrouck, Edwin Ubiles, Alex Franklin, and Ryan Rossiter yeah they make it happen for the Saints, but look at it this way.  No team in the Metro Atlantic can press like your boys.  For Siena it’ll be like they are sittin’ on Marvin Gardens, and you got hotels set up on Pacific, North Carolina, Pennsylavania, Park Place, and Boardwalk.  Heck you might even have the railroads tied up.  Siena will have no margin for error.

Look at the rest of your bracket!

Be thankful you’re not Calhoun and the Huskies.  They have Memphis as a 2-seed.  Ouch!  Like Calipari needs a reason to motivate the Tigers.  I swear that guy can convince someone that chicken poop is chicken soup.

Instead you have Michigan State.  See the comments above about Ohio State.  The same applies to the Spartans.  Izzo and gang might have to be on upset alert when it comes to Robert Morris.

Then you got Kansas at #3 and Wake at #4.  

Self has done a great job rebuilding the Jayhawks, but come on.  Those pups will collapse with the game on the line.  

And the Demon Deacons?  After looking like a Final Four team about a month ago they have been in a free fall.  Wake is looking like New York State Governor Patterson and his approval rating.  They won’t make it past Cleveland State in the first round.

Then you got the anti-upset thing working for you.  Arizona and USC are seeded 12 and 10 respectively.  Yet they are favored to beat Utah and Boston College.

Don’t know who’s got it wrong – the committee or the bookies –  but it can only look good for you.

West Virginia might pose a threat.  Just don’t let them get you in a half-court game.

Of course the Mountaineers gotta get past Dayton.  Everyboady has taken a turn hitting the pinata known as the Atlantic 10.  Beware the Flyers!  They are a sneaky defensive club.

One thing though is this stat that Jimmy Dykes keeps throwin’ around.  He keeps mentioning something about the last 20 national champions have scored at least 57% of their points in March from the paint.

Do you think your boy Samuels is up to the task?  

I suppose there are other ways to score in the paint.  You’ll figure it out.

Besides what does Dykes know?

He’s wearing a headset.   And you?  You got that sweet white suit.

Live it up!