NL East

Any discussion of the NL East has to begin with the defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies. The only significant change between this year’s team and last year’s is the replacement of left fielder Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez. Their offense remains formidable, especially with Chase Utley returning sooner than expected from off-season hip surgery. If Ryan Howard can put together a more consistent season than last year, their lineup could be terrifying, as Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth appear to have the potential to get even better. Jimmy Rollins, of course, is the catalyst at the top of the order. The Phillies’ major question mark is their starting rotation. Cole Hamels is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but Brett Myers and Joe Blanton have consistently underachieved, and Jamie Moyer is 45. Also, not to take anything away from Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson, but it’s hard to believe that the bullpen will be as dominant as it was last year, and the loss of J.C. Romero (steroids suspension) for 50 games doesn’t help matters either.

The Florida Marlins have never gone six consecutive years without winning a World Series. If they don’t win it all this year, it will be a record championship drought for the team. I’m sure Cubs fans are not at all sympathetic. While they probably aren’t strong enough to win the Series, don’t rule out the possibility that the Fish could contend. The top three in their rotation–Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad and Josh Johnson–have the potential to remind folks of Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and Carl Pavano. Their lineup is not overly impressive, but–even beyond Hanley Ramirez–there’s some exciting young talent in Cameron Maybin, Dan Uggla, Cody Ross and Emilio Bonifacio. The bullpen could be their downfall, though, with closer Matt Lindstrom questionable with a shoulder injury for the start of the season, and Scott Proctor–their only other experienced reliever–likely beginning the season on the DL.

The New York Mets not only addressed their biggest weakness in the offseason, they converted it to one of their strengths. Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz should team to be the best 1-2 bullpen combination in baseball. Add to that a lineup–paced by Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Carlos Delgado–that’s never had trouble scoring runs, and a rotation headed by the best starting pitcher in baseball–Johan Santana–and the Mets should undoubtedly be in the mix of playoff contenders in 2009. The only serious questions are the depth of the rotation and whether or not the team’s two consecutive late-season collapses are an indication of the club’s character-or lack thereof.

Four-fifths of the rotation for the Atlanta Braves is new to the team. Well, new this year, that is, as Tom Glavine returns for his swan song as the fifth starter. The revamped rotation of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, Jair Jurrjens–the only returning starter–and Glavine is a potential strength. Beyond that, the rest of the team is going to have to overachieve for the Braves to be competitive. The lineup–led by Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur–is solid but unspectacular, and the bullpen–beyond Mike Gonzalez–is a big question mark, especially the health and consistency of Rafael Soriano.

The Washington Nationals have some exciting young hitters, particularly Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Jesus Flores and Ryan Zimmerman. That alone gives them something to look forward to this year. Unfortunately for the Nationals, neither their starting rotation nor their bullpen provide much reason for optimism, other than the fact that most of the pitchers filling those roles are young and unproven, but with much less upside than the Marlins’ young staff.

NL Central

In the Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates have finished below .500 for 16 consecutive seasons, and they’re going to have a tough time avoiding the dubious distinction of the longest such streak in professional sports history. Their lineup includes only two players–Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche–who have ever hit 20 home runs in a season, and their bullpen lacks depth beyond Matt Capps and John Grabow. They do have four young arms in a rotation that is a potential future strength, but it is doubtful that Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ian Snell and Ross Ohlendorf will be good enough for the Pirates to even get a whiff of playoff contention this year.

It’s become pretty much an annual rite of late to ponder the question of whether this will finally be “the year” for the Chicago Cubs. They finished 2008 with the best record in the National League, then were promptly swept out of the playoffs by the Dodgers. The only explanation for why they traded Mark DeRosa in the offseason is they were selling high in anticipation of a drop-off in performance after a career year. The addition of Milton Bradley makes their lineup–which already included Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto–even more impressive, but certainly weakens their defense. Bradley will make the switch from being primarily a DH to a full-time right fielder, a change that means the Cubs will be platooning a couple of corner outfielders–Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson–in center. The departure of Kerry Wood has to weaken the bullpen a little, even if Carlos Marmol–who was quite possibly the best setup man in baseball last year–eventually takes over the closer’s role from newcomer Kevin Gregg. Otherwise, the Cubs look to be just as strong as last year’s version, and if Rich Harden can actually produce the first 200-inning season of his career, this team could…no, I’m not going to say it.

The four remaining teams in the Central are all quite intriguing in that they all have some potential to contend, but their seasons could just as easily turn out disastrous. Although the Milwaukee Brewers will be hurt by the departures of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, the emergence of Yovanni Gallardo has the potential to soften the blow. If a Jake Peavy trade can be pulled off, they could find themselves right back where they left off last year. The offense–powered by Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy–should be among the NL’s best. One of the keys to their season will be if Trevor Hoffman–despite starting the season on the DL–can stabilize a bullpen that rivaled the Mets’ in futility last year.

There is one huge key to the outlook for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009. That is, can Chris Carpenter–who’s pitched only 21 major league innings in the last two years–return to his 2004-06 form? He’s been impressive this spring, but remaining healthy for an entire season is a different story. Last year’s team was one of the majors’ biggest overachievers without Carpenter, so they have to be optimistic about what they can accomplish if their ace truly is back. But, they did overachieve last year, so another big question is are they really as good as they played in 2008? More specifically, is Ryan Ludwick (.299, 37 HR, 113 RBI) for real? If not, Albert Pujols will have to carry the offense, which he’s more than capable of doing, but he could certainly use some help, as the rest of the lineup isn’t all that impressive. Defense is a big question mark too, with converted outfielder Skip Schumaker and newcomer Khalil Greene forming a brand new double play combination, and an outfield that may be the worst in the league.

The Houston Astros are another team that overachieved last year, surprisingly remaining in the wild card race until the season’s final weeks. They return a strong offense, led by Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence. The bullpen is a strength as well, with Jose Valverde–having emerged in the last couple years as one of the NL’s top closers–supported by Doug Brocail and LaTroy Hawkins. Other than staff ace Roy Oswalt, though, the starting pitching is a major question mark. The Astros are hoping that veterans Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz still have something left in the tank, and that Wandy Rodriguez can build on a solid 2008.

The Cincinnati Reds boast three of last year’s top five in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Two of those players–first baseman Joey Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce–lead a somewhat power deficient offense that includes second baseman Brandon Phillips in the cleanup spot. The Reds’ third potential second year phenom, Edinson Volquez, is a significant part of what happens to be one of the team’s strengths: starting pitching. With Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, the Reds have a potentially strong rotation, which makes them a candidate to be one of the surprise teams of 2009.

NL West

Out West, it seems likely that the Los Angeles Dodgers will improve on their 84-win season of 2008. Given the state of the division, that could be enough to take first place, and despite the departures of starting pitchers Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux, the Dodgers would still have to be considered one of the favorites. Their offense clearly is the class of the division, with a strong cast that includes Rafael Furcal, James Loney, Andre Ethier and Russell Martin supporting Manny Ramirez. The question, though, is do they have enough starting pitching after Chad Billingsley? It may be enough to win the weakest division in the NL, but going deep into the postseason is another story.

There are two teams in the West who clearly have stronger rotations than Los Angeles. The Arizona Diamondbacks boast probably the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. The duo combined for 38 wins and almost 400 strikeouts in over 440 innings of work last year. But, the Diamondbacks will only go as far as Webb and Haren can carry them, and that may be too heavy a load for their dual aces. There’s potential for improvement in their young offense, but there’s also a lot of potential for frustration with a lineup that includes–in Mark Reynolds and Chris Young–two of last year’s top six in the majors in strikeouts. There’s also the question of a bullpen that–other than a washed up Tom Gordon–includes no one with any considerable experience at closing out games. Still, if Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch and Tony Pena are able to get the job done, and some of their young hitters take steps in the right direction, Arizona could have enough to make a run at the post-season.

The San Francisco Giants will have to rely on their starting pitching to an even greater extent than the Diamondbacks. The addition of future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson to a rotation that already included reigning NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, former AL award winner Barry Zito, and Matt Cain, is a move that shouldn’t be taken lightly. But, the Giants could easily have the weakest lineup in all of baseball, as evidenced by the fact that Bengie Molina is slated to be their cleanup hitter. So, unless Lincecum is as phenomenal as last year, Cain lives up to his potential, and Johnson and Zito turn back the clock seven years, the best this team can realistically hope for is a .500 finish.

The Colorado Rockies have little reason to be optimistic this year, and the most excitement fans in San Diego have to look forward to is the anticipation of what bounty they can get in exchange for Jake Peavy, when they eventually trade him. The Rockies will still score some runs–despite the trade of Matt Holliday to Oakland–but other than Ubaldo Jimenez, there’s not much else to be excited about. Jimenez leads a pitching staff that has made no significant changes following a season in which they finished 15^th in the National League in ERA, a fact that can’t entirely be blamed on Coors Field, considering they were 13^th in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The last time I checked those outcomes had little to do with the ballpark. Huston Street–obtained from Oakland in the Holliday deal–is the new closer, and he and Manny Corpas make for a solid bullpen duo, but it remains to be seen how many games they’ll have the chance to close out.

As I already mentioned, it’s hard to get very excited about the San Diego Padres this year. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is an emerging star, but he can’t carry the lineup alone, and there isn’t much of a supporting cast. Of course, Peavy is among the game’s best starting pitchers, and Chris Young has always had the talent to be a solid #2, but if this team–that many consider the worst in baseball–finishes any higher than last place, Bud Black should win Manager of the Year.

I thought that right field was a loaded position, but the tough decisions there paled in comparison to those I had to make determining what pitchers would make my all-lifetime team. Starting pitchers were particularly difficult, as I could have made a top ten list and still left Hall of Famers off of it. Or, I could have chosen three right-handers and three left-handers, but instead I opted to just go with six starters in total.

Starting Pitcher
1. Roger Clemens
2. Greg Maddux
3. Tom Seaver
4. Randy Johnson
5. Pedro Martinez
6. Steve Carlton

As I said before, on-field performance is strictly what these selections are based on, and it’s hard to argue that Clemens–with his seven Cy Young awards–is not the best starting pitcher of his generation. Maddux’s career included an incredible run of seven consecutive seasons with an ERA+ of 160 (60% better than average) or higher. Seaver only accomplished that twice, but he did finish in the top five in Cy Young voting eight times. Johnson and Martinez have arguably been more dominant at their peaks than anyone here, but their injury plagued careers keep them out of the top three. Carlton beats out Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Jim Palmer, Fergie Jenkins, Don Sutton, Nolan Ryan, Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina and John Smoltz for the final spot.

Relief Pitcher (pre-1988)
1. Bruce Sutter
2. Rich Gossage
3. Dan Quisenberry

Relief Pitcher (post-1988)
1. Mariano Rivera
2. Trevor Hoffman
3. Dennis Eckersley

Rivera is an easy #1, but after that I can understand why Hall of Fame voters seem to be having such a tough time figuring out how to deal with relief pitchers. I honestly didn’t expect this to be such a difficult decision, so I decided to divide them into two categories: pre-1988 and post-1988. That year, of course, was Eckersley’s first season as a full-time closer, which is generally considered to be the beginning of the one-inning save trend.

Like I said, Rivera would be #1 on the list even if I hadn’t split the group in half. I used to think that some could make an argument for Eckersley as the best of the post-1988 bunch. But, then I took a closer look and realized that, as great as he was in his prime, that prime was very short-lived. He makes the list, but I chose Hoffman’s consistency over Eck’s dominant prime. Surprisingly overlooked in discussions of the best active closers is Billy Wagner, whose career ERA+ of 180 is second only to Rivera. Lastly, Lee Smith probably doesn’t quite get the respect he deserves, but in my opinion, he’s still not a Hall of Famer.

The most unsung closer of the pre-1988 era is Quisenberry, and I really believe he deserved much more Hall of Fame consideration than the 3.8% of the vote he received in his first, and only, year on the ballot. His career percentage of save opportunities converted (81.6) is better than Sutter (74.8), Gossage (73.5) and Rollie Fingers (75.8); and his ERA+ (146) outshines that Hall of Fame trio as well: Sutter (136), Gossage (126), Fingers (119). All four of them averaged over an inning and a half per relief appearance, so they’re on a pretty level playing field when it comes to comparing their saves percentages. Incidentally, the post-1988 crew have much better success rates, but they all average about a half inning less per outing. I intend no disrespect to Fingers by bumping him from the list in favor of Quisenberry, because it could have been any of them. If he was a little closer to 300 career saves, I’d have no reservations ranking Quiz #1.

To be more specific, I consider 1974 to be the year that I became a true baseball fan. So, to be eligible, a player has to have played at least ten years during the period of 1974 to 2008. Since there were a couple of gray areas with regard to positions, I generally considered each player’s entire career at the position at which he played the most games.

As exceptions, I considered Andre Dawson as a center fielder, although he actually played more games in right, due to the relative weakness of the position, but also because he had just as many of his best seasons there. Also, since Pete Rose played four or more seasons at five different positions, and actually didn’t play his first season at his most frequently played position–first base–until his 17th year, I decided to call him the game’s ultimate utility player. So as not to create an exclusive category for that, I thought it would be appropriate to combine it with the otherwise under-represented DHs.

So, with minimal analysis–although don’t believe for a second that a lot didn’t go into these decisions–and starting with the position players in this part one, I’m going to offer my picks for the top three players of my lifetime at each position.

Hall of Famers are in bold print.

Catcher

1. Johnny Bench
2. Carlton Fisk
3. Ivan Rodriguez

Honorable mentions: Mike Piazza, Gary Carter
Bench was easy. The remaining four are probably interchangeable, depending on what factors you choose to emphasize.

First Base
1. Eddie Murray
2. Jeff Bagwell
3. Rod Carew

Honorable mentions: Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Tony Perez
Murray is also an obvious pick. Bagwell might not seem as obvious, but to me he is. Carew played more first base than second base in his career.

Second Base
1. Joe Morgan
2. Roberto Alomar
3. Craig Biggio

Honorable mentions: Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Kent
Another no-brainer for the top spot. It might be surprising to some that I consider both Alomar and Biggio better than the slightly over-rated Sandberg.

Shortstop
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Cal Ripken Jr.
3. Robin Yount

Honorable mentions: Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter, Ozzie Smith
Rodriguez still has 3+ years to go before he’s played more games at third than at short. He’s already surpassed the Hall of Famers Ripken and Yount, and the over-rated Smith.

Third Base
1. Mike Schmidt
2. George Brett
3. Wade Boggs

Honorable mention: Chipper Jones
The presence of three Hall of Famers made these picks pretty easy. Jones has some pretty impressive numbers, though, and may soon make a case for himself.

Left Field
1. Barry Bonds
2. Rickey Henderson
3. Carl Yastrzemski

Honorable mentions: Tim Raines, Jim Rice
Three slam dunk Hall of Famers easily beat out a borderline Hall of Famer and an extremely under-rated player.

Center Field
1. Ken Griffey Jr.
2. Andre Dawson
3. Bernie Williams

Honorable mentions: Kirby Puckett, Jim Edmonds
I’m sure I’ll get some grief for picking Dawson and (especially) Williams ahead of Puckett, but the proof that I didn’t favor Williams just because he was a Yankee is the absence of names like Thurman Munson, Don Mattingly and Graig Nettles above.

Right Field
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Dave Winfield
3. Reggie Jackson

Honorable mentions: Tony Gwynn, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Vladimir Guerrero
This was the strongest position of all, and no…your eyes do not deceive you. Ramirez tops the list, over two Yankee greats.

Utility/DH
1. Pete Rose
2. Paul Molitor
3. Frank Thomas

Honorable mentions: Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines
Thomas should eventually become the second DH in the Hall of Fame. Molitor was the first, and Rose–of course–would be there if not for…well, you know.

Bring it on, gentleman. Looking forward to your comments, and stay tuned for part two…the pitchers.

There are a surprisingly large number of quality players who are still unemployed at this stage of the offseason, with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report for spring training. The following is a non-exhaustive list of guys who fall into this category. That is, prominent players who are–surprisingly or not–still without a team.

Bobby Abreu, Garret Anderson, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Eric Gagne, Jon Garland, Nomar Garciaparra, Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Tom Gordon, Ken Griffey, Mark Grudzielanek, Eddie Guardado, Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez, Orlando Hudson, Jason Isringhausen, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Paul Lo Duca, Pedro Martinez, Doug Mientkiewicz, Kevin Millar, Mark Mulder, Jay Payton, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, Richie Sexson, Ben Sheets, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas, Juan Uribe, Jason Varitek, Omar Vizquel, Randy Wolf.

Who on this list are we most surprised about? Who are we not surprised about? Or, are we not surprised at all? Whose career is involuntarily over? Any predictions regarding where some of these players will land? Will the Yankees sign them all and stock up their farm system with major league caliber players? Is there anyone of significant I missed?

Hopefully, this will generate some baseball discussion over this three-day weekend–for those of us who have Martin Luther King Day off, that is. Also, feel free to send any baseball-related questions my way. So, in a sense, this post will be like an Open Thread Thursday/Ask Smitty Mailbag hybrid.

Actually, what started out as an attempt to discuss the most significant players on the 2009 ballot, turned into an argument for the candidacy of one particular player. It just so happens that the player in question received only 24.3% of the vote last year, in his first year of eligibility. In fact, he received only one-third the amount of support as another player, who happened to play the same position that he did, and who is much less deserving of the honor. But, I’m not going to get into comparing these two players. If you’re interested, you can read about that here. I just want to make the case for the guy I feel is the second most deserving candidate on this year’s ballot.

So, since I actually intended to cover more ground in this week’s column, I’m going to give you this week’s Cooking with Chas in two parts–or more.

First, let me weigh in on a subject that can get a bit controversial. That is, the discussion of whether or not a player is worthy of first-ballot election or not. There are some who will complain that a Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, and why should it matter how many years a player has been on the ballot? Why does a less than obvious candidate have to wait it out and pay his dues–so to speak–until he’s elected? I thoroughly agree with these complaints, particularly when it comes to those voters who refuse to vote for a player in his first year of eligibility. However, when a player is not Willie Mays or Tom Seaver, voters are entitled to change their minds. I’ll admit to having changed my mind about a few players on this year’s ballot. I will also say that, when I change my mind, it’s usually in favor of a player. So, I think it’s somewhat understandable that the longer a name is on the ballot, the more there exists the opportunity for voters to consistently hear the arguments in favor of the player and be swayed to the positive side. This probably doesn’t explain how someone can jump from 29% of the vote to 72% in a span of ten years, but it does justify it to some extent.

With that said, let’s begin by taking a look at the players who I consider to be at the head of this year’s class.

Rickey Henderson, of course, is the most deserving player on this year’s ballot. Should I waste any time, or space here, explaining this selection? Probably not, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking: 1406 SB (1st all-time), 2295 runs (1st), 2190 BB (2nd), 3055 hits, .401 OBP, 127 OPS+, 535 win shares (400 means absolute HOF enshrinement, according to Bill James).

Tim Raines, while maybe not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, should be fairly obvious as well. In the 80s, he was the National League’s version of Rickey Henderson. That is, the best leadoff hitter in his respective league. He was not quite as good as Henderson, of course, but that’s certainly no insult. He had an OBP of .390 or better, which ranked in the top six in the NL, in seven seasons in that decade, despite not playing in his first full season until 1982. Also in the 80s, he ranked first or second in runs scored four times (six times in the top ten), and in the top four in stolen bases eight times, including leading the league for four consecutive years from 1981 to 1984. He also ranked in the top three in runs created for five consecutive years (1983 to 1987).

Raines had an excellent prime, but there was a bit of a drop-off after he left Montreal. Still, although his base stealing ability declined quickly from his early to mid-30s, he remained a good offensive player with a high OBP and decent power. He also played a significant part-time role for two World Series teams in his late 30s, and accumulated 390 win shares over the course of his career. I said earlier that Bill James, the creator of win shares, has stated that 400 is the plateau for automatic enshrinement in Cooperstown. James has also called 300 the level at which a player is more likely than not to enter the Hall of Fame. The last ten position players to be inducted have averaged 377, from Kirby Puckett’s 281 to Eddie Murray’s 437, with Wade Boggs (394) and Tony Gwynn (398) achieving the closest totals to Raines’ 390.

Raines also had a career OBP of .385, an OPS+ (park/league adjusted OPS) of 123 (23% better than average), and is 5th on the career stolen bases list with 808, at an outstanding success rate of 84%. By comparison, Rickey Henderson was successful 80% of the time, and Lou Brock’s rate was 75%. Speaking of Brock, baseball-reference.com’s similarity scores judge him to be the player whose career mostly closely compares to Raines’.

Brock is not only a Hall of Famer, but he was elected on the first ballot. I’m a strong advocate that we should never argue that one player deserves to make it just because another undeserving player did. I’m not saying Brock is undeserving, although he is over-rated and has nothing on Raines, other than 130 stolen bases–which is more than offset by having been caught stealing 161 more times–and the fact that he reached the artificially magical milestone of 3000 hits.

Raines beats him in win shares (390 to 348), and tops him easily in OBP (.385 to .343), OPS+ (123 to 109) and runs created per 27 outs (6.6 to 5.2), while maintaining fairly comparable statistics in other more traditional cumulative categories (39 fewer runs, 80 more RBI, 21 more HR). Furthermore, Raines never won a Gold Glove, but he was an above average outfielder, and Brock was a surprisingly poor defender, making 10 or more errors in 12 different seasons. Yes, you’re reading that correctly. He made 196 errors in 19 seasons, with a .959 fielding percentage, as an outfielder.

But, as I said, Brock’s shortcomings should not be an argument for Raines’ candidacy. However, I have no problem saying that Raines compares favorably with the two men considered to be the best speed-oriented leadoff hitters in the second half of the 20th century. In fact, if you asked me to rate them in order, I’d feel very confident rating Raines behind Henderson, but ahead of Brock. Therefore, Tim Raines is, without question, a Hall of Famer.

This Week on the Hot Stove

Since this is supposed to be a weekly look at the hot stove, otherwise known as Major League Baseball’s off-season, I’m going to make sure to spend a little time selectively discussing this week’s most significant developments.

Trevor Hoffman reportedly agreed to a one-year contract to take over as the Milwaukee Brewers’ closer. The career saves leader’s deal is worth $6 million and includes an option for a second year, which could give him a chance at reaching the 600-save plateau.

While neither deal has been confirmed, the Boston Red Sox apparently signed a pair of starting pitchers, both of whom are coming off of injury plagued seasons, but who could also prove to be tremendous bargains. John Smoltz, who will turn 42 in May, and Brad Penny, who will be 31 but is probably a bigger question mark, both are believed to have signed one-year deals in the range of $5 million plus incentives. It’s really hard to imagine Smoltz not being effective, if healthy, so I have to believe that he’ll make a contribution in 2009. However, Penny has some upside if healthy, but even in his best year (2007), he was an over-rated pitcher who benefited greatly from pitching in Chavez Ravine. That year, his K/BB ratio was unimpressively less than 2-to-1 and the 9 HR he allowed in 208 IP were an aberration when compared with his career numbers. Expect him to be a better–but not necessarily by much–version of last year’s Bartolo Colon.

The Chicago Cubs signed the much maligned Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal. Bradley will play right field and will add a run-producing bat to the heart of the North-siders lineup. He’ll also wear Sammy Sosa’s #21. The biggest question facing the Cubbies now will be, who will lead the team in temper tantrums–Bradley or manager Lou Piniella.

Pat Burrell signed a two-year, $16 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. The defensive-challenged Burrell will likely spend most of 2009 at DH for the defending AL champs.

Jason Giambi signed a one-year deal to return to his original team, the Oakland Athletics. The agreement is worth $4 million, with a club option for 2010.

Stay tuned this weekend for Part 2 of “Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Class”, as well as a summary of some of the less significant hot stove transactions of the past week.

Following the 2001 season, the Yankees signed Jason Giambi, who arguably should have won his second consecutive MVP that year, to a 7-year deal worth $119 million. His performance approached his two MVP-caliber seasons in 2002, but after that he was generally considered a disappointment. That contract expired following the 2008 season, so as an early Christmas present to their fans, the Yankees replaced him with another $100+ million player.

The Mark Teixeira signing by the Yankees came as a bit of a surprise. Personally, I had the pleasure of breaking the news to a good friend and Mets fan as I saw the ESPN report on the televisions in Dick’s Clothing and Sporting Goods during a little last-minute Christmas shopping excursion. Believe it or not, prior to this year, the Yankees had “only” signed two free agents to contracts–not including Derek Jeter’s extension–with a total value of greater than $100 million (Giambi and Alex Rodriguez) since they last won the World Series in 2000. This offseason, they added two more (Teixeira and CC Sabathia).

Will these be the acquisitions that finally hit pay dirt for the Yanks, successfully ending an eight-year drought? That’s difficult to say, but one thing’s for certain–they now are the odds-on favorite to win the World Series. It will be interesting to see what their outfield looks like now that the Teixeira signing shifts Nick Swisher to the outfield/DH mix that–barring any more changes–includes himself, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Xavier Nady, Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. That, of course, is assuming that Jorge Posada is healthy enough to catch most every day.

So, obviously, determining the mix of positional players will be a challenge, and their defense is virtually assured of being below average. However, they won’t be lacking for offense as the 3-4 combination of A-Rod/Teixeira (or Teixeira/A-Rod), while not quite Ortiz/Manny in their prime, has to be considered the most formidable in baseball.

The Angels made surprisingly little effort to re-sign closer Francisco Rodriguez, allowing him to move east to the Mets, who signed him to a three-year, $37 million deal. Presumably, they were saving their money in an attempt to re-sign Teixeira or, failing that, another middle of the order bat. Well, obviously, they missed out on Teixeira, then indicated that they weren’t interested in Manny Ramirez as an alternative. So, they reversed course and seemingly decided that they weren’t prepared to go into next season with Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo vying for the 9th inning role. They signed Brian Fuentes to be Rodriguez’s successor as closer, agreeing to terms on a two-year, $17.5 million contract.

Fuentes is a solid pickup, and a fairly under-rated relief pitcher. Based on his record breaking 62-save season, K-Rod is somewhat over-rated, so the difference between the two is probably not as great as your initial impressions might lead you to believe. Add to that the fact that Fuentes comes about $3 million per year cheaper, and requires one less year of commitment. But, the pre-Teixeira Angels–with only Vladimir Guerrero as a legitimate threat in heart of their lineup–were anemic offensively, and Vlad seems to be getting old prematurely. I’m not saying his offensive skills have diminished–although his numbers were down last year–but he’s certainly had trouble staying healthy and appears to be constantly playing hurt. So, did the Angels address their most significant need? I hardly think so, but there are still three more months left in this offseason.

So, for the Yankees and Angels, it’s out with the old (Giambi, K-Rod) and in with the new (Teixeira, Fuentes). Both teams, of course, are hoping that the new year brings them a little more–in the Angels’ case–or a lot more–in the Yankees’ case–luck than 2008 did.

Elsewhere on the Hot Stove

In other news, the Cubs traded second baseman/utility man Mark DeRosa to the Indians for minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, John Gaub and Chris Archer, none of whom are expected to make much of an impact in the majors for the Cubs in 2009. DeRosa–coming off a career year at the plate (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .857 OPS)–is expected to be the Indians’ starting third baseman. The idea of moving shortstop Jhonny Peralta to third and second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera to short had been discussed as part of Cleveland’s offseason plans, but it appears they will leave things as they are for now. DeRosa’s versatility still leaves that option open, though.

The Cubs essentially replaced DeRosa by signing the versatile Aaron Miles to a two-year, $4.9 million contract. He will most likely share time at second base with Mike Fontenot, as well as serve as Chicago’s utility man, having played second, short, third and all three outfield positions last year. The replacement of DeRosa with Miles is one of a few moves that gives the Cubs financial flexibility that they’re expected to take advantage of by signing Milton Bradley. There are also rumblings that they may be looking to re-visit the Jake Peavy trade discussions with the Padres.

Elsewhere, with their eyes on returning to NL West contention in 2009, the Giants signed 45-year old future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson to a one-year contract worth $8 million. The Big Unit’s post-all star break ERA of 2.41 ranked fifth in the National League. He’ll join a rotation that is clearly a strength for the Giants, along with 2008 NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, 2002 AL Cy Young Award winner Barry Zito, and Matt Cain–who, despite a 15-30 record over the last two years, has posted solid numbers (3.65 and 3.76 ERAs, better than 2-to-1 K/BB ratios, and just 35 HR allowed in 417 IP in 2007-08).

In the hopeless causes department, Willy Taveras and the Reds agreed to a two-year, $6.25 million contract. The 27-year old reigning National League stolen base leader will be Cincinnati’s center fielder and leadoff hitter, despite a .308 OBP–which ranked 66th out of 72 NL players with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title–in 2008. Even worse, only Michael Bourn’s OPS was worse than Taveras’ .604 mark among qualified NL batters. Using a slightly different definition of that word, the only position Taveras is truly qualified for is pinch-runner and defensive replacement, in this writer’s opinion.

Lastly, the Nationals signed starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera to a one-year, $2.6 million deal. Cabrera, who will turn 28 in May, has been the poster child for unfulfilled potential during his five years in Baltimore. Despite unimpressive career numbers, including a 5.05 ERA and 1.36 K/BB ratio, there’s still enough upside to expect that he’ll be in Washington’s 2009 rotation. The Orioles then signed 6-foot-9 lefty Mark Hendrickson to a one-year contract. He may compete for a spot in their 2009 rotation or fill a bullpen role.

It appears that Mark Teixeira is going to decide where he’ll settle before we hear any news about Manny Ramirez–unless he decides to retire, that is. Yesterday, it was reported that the Red Sox were closing in on signing Tex to an 8-year deal, believed to be valued at $184 million. Then, this morning the word is that the Sox are backing out of the Teixeira sweepstakes. In an e-mail to the Associated Press, Boston owner John Henry stated that they had been outbid and were no longer going to be a factor in the competition for his services. This, of course, begs the questions, who were they outbid by, and are the Red Sox bluffing?

In answering the first question, I’m sure most everyone will agree that the obvious answer is the Yankees, but Brian Cashman was also quoted as saying that his team is not the high bidder. So, is there another team that offered more than $23 million per year for 8 years? It’s hard to believe that team could be the Orioles or the Nationals. Frankly, if it’s the latter, this writer’s opinion is that it’s a big mistake. I suppose it could be the Angels, but more than likely–to answer the second question–it’s that the Sox are bluffing, possibly because they believe that Teixeira’s agent, Scott Boras, is feeding them misinformation regarding other offers he’s received for his client.

Prediction: the Red Sox and Teixeira agree to a deal by the end of this weekend.

The other major news item from this past week is the Dodgers signing of Rafael Furcal to a three-year, $30 million deal, with a vesting option for a fourth year at an additional $12 million. The vesting option is believed to be contingent upon Furcal reaching 600 plate appearances in the third year of the contract.

The signing was not without some controversy, however. The Braves are now saying that they will never again deal with Furcal’s agents–the Wasserman Media Group, led by Paul Kinzer and Arm Tellem–believing that the firm reneged on a deal they had with its client. In a statement issued by Tellem, he claims there was no such agreement, and that the Braves knew that Furcal was sleeping on their offer, which was believed to be very similar to the Dodgers’. Atlanta team president John Schuerholz, however, is quoted as saying, “Having been in this business for 40-some years, I’ve never seen anybody treated like that…I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list”.

Prediction: the Braves back off their stance and eventually sign Wasserman client Randy Wolf.

Venturing into territory previously uncharted by Cooking with Chas, the Houston Astros’ all-time leader in games pitched, Dave Smith, died this week at age 53. Smith, a two-time all-star who also is second on the Astros’ career saves list, apparently died of a heart attack on Wednesday. He is remembered by those who played with and against him as a fierce competitor, and by teammates and friends for his generosity and zest for life. Giants third base coach and former big leaguer Tim Flannery, who also served on the Padres’ coaching staff with Smith from 1999 to 2001, called him “…the most giving, unconditionally compassionate man anyone ever came across…” and fondly remembers him “…reaching into his pocket and pulling out $100 to give to someone selling newspapers for a quarter”.

Personally, I remember Smith for the part he played in what I recall as the most exciting baseball post-season I’ve ever witnessed. During my sophomore year in college, I was part of a group of haters who rooted passionately against the 1986 Mets of Gary Carter, Keith Hernandez, Lenny Dykstra and Ray Knight, even going so far as to cheer for the Red Sox in the World Series. This, of course, is the primary reason I hate the Red Sox to this day–the one time I rooted for them…well, you know what happened. But, despite the fact that the ’86 Astros were essentially a one-man show, that entire team holds a place near and dear to my heart for the valiant effort they put forth, despite being seriously over-matched.

Smith didn’t pitch very well in that LCS, most notably blowing game three by yielding a 9th inning game-winning two-run home run to Lenny Dykstra, and ruining the Astros’ chances of going up 2-1 on the Mets with Mike Scott–the aforementioned one-man show–throwing the next day. However, he was as much a part of that team as Billy Hatcher, Glenn Davis, Charlie Kerfeld and Alan Ashby. Actually, as I peruse the box scores of that series, I realize that he was probably the biggest reason his team lost, but I love the ’86 Astros, and Dave Smith was loved by his teammates. Rest in peace, Flight 45.

In other hot stove news, 46-year old starting pitcher Jamie Moyer, the oldest player in baseball, and the Phillies agreed to a two-year deal worth $13 million. The Phillies also signed Chan Ho Park to a one-year, $2.5 million contract, which could go to as high as $5 million with incentives. Park may compete for a spot in their rotation or fill a bullpen role.

The Royals and Kyle Farnsworth agreed to a two-year, $9.25 million deal. He’ll become the right-handed half of a bullpen duo with Ron Mahay, setting up for closer Joakim Soria.

The Angels re-signed outfielder Juan Rivera, to a three-year, $12.75 million deal, a move that decreases the likelihood that they’ll be interested in pursuing free agent Manny Ramirez. Rivera will continue to fill the role of the Halos’ fourth outfielder and part-time designated hitter.

Needing a new home after the Cardinals completed a trade for Khalil Greene, Cezar Izturis headed back to the American League, signing with the Orioles to be their shortstop. The sides agreed this week on a two-year, $6 million deal.

The Astros agreed to a pair of one-year, $750,000 deals. Aaron Boone will be the right-handed half of a third base platoon with Geoff Blum, and Jason Michaels will be their fifth outfielder.

The Diamondbacks brought in Felipe Lopez to play second base when they agreed to terms on a one-year contract worth $3.5 million.

Adam Everett signed with the Tigers, to replace Edgar Renteria as their shortstop, for one year at $1 million plus incentives.

Finally, here’s a brief rundown of recent news related to former Red Sox players. Alan Embree will become the Rockies’ primary left-handed setup man, agreeing to a $2.25 million, one-year contract. Outfielder Trot Nixon and pitcher Matt Clement were signed to minor league deals–Nixon by the Brewers and Clement, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since June 2006–with the Blue Jays. Second baseman Mark Loretta signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers. Pitcher Lenny DiNardo received a spring training invitation from the Royals.

The Yankees’ signings of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, while not necessarily the most economically sound moves, certainly have to make the rest of the league take notice. Despite missing the post-season last year with a payroll of over $2 million per victory, the Yankees still won 89 games while getting significantly less contribution from Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy than was expected. They will most likely get more out of Wang and Chamberlain this year, and despite the departure of Mike Mussina, the additions of Sabathia and Burnett should easily put them back in the playoff picture.

Don’t expect them to rest on these moves, either. By the time they’re done maneuvering, the Yankees, whether deserved or not, will be the favorite to win the AL East and, probably, the World Series. That distinction, of course, will be based on how the team looks on paper. Translating that to actual success is the thing the Yanks have had difficulty with in recent years.

Since I brought it up, we all know that making economically sound moves is not the Yankees’ modus operandi. In an era where it’s believed that championship contenders are built through a balance of developing good young talent and making key acquisitions of proven veteran performers, fans have become increasingly interested in whether or not their teams are spending their money wisely. That is, all except Yankees fans. Milwaukee Brewers loyalists know that, if they had signed Sabathia to a four-year, $100 million contract, and if he ended up contributing significantly less than being the hero he was last year, the team would not be able to overcome this. Even Red Sox, Mets, Angels and Dodgers fans know that their teams can ill afford to make a monumental mistake with a long-term free agent contract.

Yankees fans do not have this concern. They do not need to care whether or not Sabathia will be overpaid in the 5th, 6th and 7th years of this $161 million deal. If he is anything approaching the Sabathia of 2007 and 2008 for two or three years, he gives them a chance to climb back to the top of the heap. The Yankees have had several bad contracts on the books for quite a few years now, yet last year is the first that they fell short of the playoffs, and, even so, were still in contention for most of the year.

With a team payroll of $201 million for 2008, the Yankees spent $2.25 million per victory. Even the Mets, Tigers and Red Sox, all listed as having payrolls in the vicinity of $138 million, would have been as bad as the Seattle Mariners, the worst team in baseball, at that rate. Yet, if the Yankees improve this “efficiency” to $2 million per, that would translate to 100 wins. Only the three aforementioned teams, plus the Chicago White Sox, would have won as many as 60 games by that calculation.

I think you get my point. The Yankees don’t have to spend wisely to win. They do have to make better personnel decisions, though, and this is something that has eluded them in recent years. Will the Sabathia and Burnett signings, and whatever they do next, continue that trend, or will they finally hit the nail on the head with their major free agent acquisitions? We’ll have to wait and see, but I have to say that A.J. Burnett, who just agreed to a five-year, $82.5 million deal, somehow reminds me of a cross between Kevin Brown and Kyle Farnsworth. Again, we’ll have to wait and see.

The Mets still have some rotation issues to address, including their new #1 priority–the re-signing of Oliver Perez–but they could not have done a better job of shoring up their major area of weakness. The Francisco Rodriguez signing–three years, $37 million–was a no-brainer. With the Angels never making a serious attempt to re-sign him, beyond the contract extension they offered last winter, his move to Queens was a foregone conclusion. The market for closers this off-season was clearly a buyers’ market, and the Mets were the club with the most purchasing power.

The Mets have had a closer of Rodriguez’s caliber for the past three years, though, so would the K-Rod signing be enough to address the area that, inarguably, was the reason the Phillies were better in 2008? Apparently, they didn’t think so. The Mets had setup problems last year, even before Billy Wagner went down with an injury that will keep him out through the 2009 season, so just a day removed from acquiring their new closer, they traded for J.J. Putz in a three-way deal involving the Indians and Mariners.

In addition to Putz, the Mets acquired relief pitcher Sean Green and reserve outfielder Jeremy Reed. The Indians get reliever Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from the Mariners. The Mariners acquire outfielder Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians, outfielder Endy Chavez and pitcher Aaron Heilman from the Mets, in addition to prospects Mike Carp (the key to the deal), Jason Vargas, Ezequiel Carrera and Maikel Cleto.

The Putz acquisition shows that the Mets mean business about not letting last year’s downfall repeat itself. Not only does he instantly become the favorite for the best setup man in baseball, but Putz provides them with an insurance policy they wish they had last year. Well on his way to becoming one of the best closers in the American League–in fact, take a look at the 2007 numbers and try to convince me he wasn’t the best–until injuries set him back last year, Putz gives the Mets a backup plan that no other team has right now.

So, while the Yankees did the most spending–and, some will say, gambling–in Vegas last week, the Mets come away the biggest winners, by playing the percentages and knowing when to double down.

Of course, there were a few other recent moves by, and news items affecting, teams other than the Yankees and Mets. First and foremost, future first-ballot Hall of Famer Greg Maddux announced his retirement, after a 23-year career that included four consecutive Cy Young awards from 1992 to 1995, 355 career wins–the most among active pitchers–and a major league record 18 gold gloves.

On the free agent front, the Phillies signed outfielder Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $30 million deal, a move that signals the end of Pat Burrell’s days in Philadelphia. The Indians addressed their need for a closer, agreeing to terms on a two-year, $20 million contract with Kerry Wood. The Dodgers signed Casey Blake to return as their third baseman, giving him a three-year, $17.5 million deal, with a club option for a fourth year at an additional $6 million. Last but not least, shortstop Edgar Renteria signed a two-year, $18.5 million deal with the Giants.

In trade news, the Braves acquired starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from the White Sox, along with reliever Boone Logan, in exchange for shortstop Brent Lillibridge, catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. The Padres traded shortstop Khalil Greene to the Cardinals for relief pitching prospect Mark Worrell and a player to be named later. The Tigers completed two trades, acquiring starting pitcher Edwin Jackson from the Rays for outfielder Matt Joyce. This move came a day after they sent minor league pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo to the Rangers for catcher Gerald Laird.

Yesterday saw several interesting, varied and, in some cases, surprising developments in Major League Baseball:

• Mike Mussina announced his retirement after 18 seasons in the majors, just 30 wins shy of 300. This, of course, will set off much discussion and debate regarding his Hall of Fame worthiness. Expect more on that subject from this writer at a later date.
• The World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies (a rarely uttered phrase) announced that second baseman Chase Utley will need off-season hip surgery, which could potentially cause him to miss the first two months, or more, of 2009.
• 39-year old Hal Steinbrenner, and not his older brother Hank, was officially named managing general partner of the New York Yankees, succeeding his father in that role, and taking over the club at an even younger age than George did. Hal then announced that the Yankees will establish a deadline for CC Sabathia to accept their contract offer.
• The commissioner’s office announced that they will make it an official rule that all post-season games will be played to completion, and cannot be shortened due to weather. I can’t imagine that anyone could possibly consider this a bad idea.

A few more significant items from this past week:

• On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox traded outfielder Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez, in what Keith Law describes as a move that may end up hurting both teams. Red Sox Nation, though, has already anointed Ramirez as the man who will allow Justin Masterson to team with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and the soon-to-be-acquired A.J. Burnett as the 5-man rotation equivalent of the ’71 Orioles.
• Also on Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners hired Don Wakamatsu as the 14th manager in their history. More importantly, Wakamatsu, who was the Oakland Athletics’ bench coach last year, becomes the first Asian-American manager in major league baseball history.
• On Tuesday, The Chicago Cubs re-signed starting pitcher Ryan Dempster, with the two sides agreeing on a 4-year, $52 million deal. Dempster, of course, will remain in last year’s role as one of the top three hurlers in the Cubs’ rotation.
• On Monday, relief pitcher Jeremy Affeldt became the first free agent of this off-season to sign, coming to terms with the San Francisco Giants on a 2-year, $8 million deal. The left-handed Affeldt pitched for the Cincinnati Reds last year, and will most likely fill a setup role in front of closer Brian Wilson.

And, just in case you missed anything that happened prior to my last hot stove report:

• On November 13, the Yankees traded utility infielder Wilson Betemit, and pitching prospects Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez to the Chicago White Sox for first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.
• Also on the 13th, the Cubs acquired relief pitcher Kevin Gregg from the Florida Marlins for minor league pitcher Jose Ceda.
• On November 12, the Athletics acquired outfielder Matt Holiday from the Colorado Rockies for relief pitcher Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez.
• Also on the 12th, the Yankees re-signed relief pitcher Damaso Marte to a three-year deal for $12 million, with a club option for a fourth, in what has to be a record deal for a relief pitcher who is neither a closer nor a primary setup man.
• On November 11, the Washington Nationals traded second baseman Emil Bonifacio to the Marlins for starting pitcher Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham.
• On October 30, the Marlins began this year’s fire sale by sending first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Royals for relief pitcher Leo Nunez.

I don’t have a lot of analysis this week, but hopefully some of the stories mentioned here will generate some discussion. Meanwhile, I’ll end this with a few predictions as to the domino effect that will decide where a few of the biggest free agents will land:

• CC Sabathia will spurn the Yankees’ offer, and disappoint the players union, but will end up making more per year than Johan Santana did last year as he accepts an offer to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
• The Dodgers aren’t going to sign both Sabathia and Manny Ramirez, so Manny will move just southeast to Orange County and sign with the Angels.
• The writing seems to be on the wall that the Angels aren’t going to work that hard to bring Francisco Rodriguez back anyway, but the Manny signing will make this reality even clearer. The only big market team that is shopping for a closer will make K-Rod the late inning King of Queens.
• With the Yankees losing out on Sabathia, and not really being that serious about Manny, their relative quiet on the Mark Teixeira front will pass, as they and the Red Sox compete much harder for his services than they did for Santana’s last year. I haven’t yet decided how this one will turn out.

I’d love to hear the opinions or predictions that any of you may have. Let the discussion begin.

Following the Rockies’ trade of Matt Holliday to Oakland, the biggest name on the hot stove trading block is, of course, the San Diego Padres’ Jake Peavy. With the Padres clearly in rebuilding mode, having recently rescinded a contract offer to all-time saves leader and San Diego lifer Trevor Hoffman, there appears to be no chance that they’ll hang onto Peavy. The Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs are the current front-runners in the Peavy sweepstakes.

Peavy apparently is trying to have his cake and eat it too. Since he has a no-trade clause, and can veto any deal, he wants to make sure that his new team doesn’t give up too much in the process. The Braves seem to be the team that is working the hardest to get a deal done, with shortstop Yunel Escobar’s name being mentioned most frequently. San Diego will be looking for more than Escobar, though, and it doesn’t seem likely that Atlanta is willing to part with the young pitching–i.e. Tommy Hanson–that the Padres want.

Chicago, on the other hand, seems to have the pitching–although they’re certain to be stubborn about the availability of Jeff Samardzija–but no position player of Escobar’s caliber. It may turn out that, if either team wants to land the biggest fish on the trade market, they may have to include a third team in the deal. Otherwise, Barry Axelrod, Peavy’s agent, may have to turn to the other teams on his short list. So, it doesn’t appear right now that there’s any certainty as to where Peavy will end up.

What does seem certain is that the Cubs are ready to place a greater emphasis on starting pitching in their off-season pursuits following yesterday’s acquisition of Kevin Gregg from the Florida Marlins. With Gregg and Carlos Marmol, the Cubs have two potential candidates for closer, and have informed Kerry Wood that they won’t be attempting to re-sign him. Look for the Cubs to be serious about bringing back Ryan Dempster, but don’t rule out the possibility that they could still acquire Peavy or pursue the relatively under-valued free agent Ben Sheets instead.

Speaking of Sheets, one comparison I’ll be keeping an eye on this off-season, and in the seasons to come, is his relative value to A.J. Burnett. Baseball executives seem to have short memories, but other than this past season, Burnett’s health is not any less suspect than Sheets’ is. Plus, I’m a big fan of strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Sheets’ career mark of 3.85 is vastly superior to Burnett’s 2.25. Also, Sheets’ career ERA+ (park/league adjusted ERA) of 116 (16% better than average) tops Burnett’s 111. If I were a GM, I would be much quicker to sign Sheets to 2-3 years at $30-40 million than I would be to pay Burnett $65-75 for 4-5 years.

Who doesn’t need pitching?

I don’t really intend to answer this question. I’m not sure if there, in fact, is an answer, but the Cleveland Indians certainly aren’t it, even after Cliff Lee’s remarkable season that landed him the AL Cy Young Award yesterday. Following Lee in the Tribe’s rotation is Fausto Carmona, whose sub-par 2008 can’t be blamed entirely on injury problems. After that, it’s a crap-shoot, with Anthony Reyes, Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey among the top candidates to hold down the fort after the departures of CC Sabathia and Paul Byrd, and with Jake Westbrook out until at least mid-season due to Tommy John surgery.

While starting pitching is certainly a need they can’t afford to overlook, the bullpen seems to be the current focus of Cleveland’s off-season plans. Jensen Lewis finished last season as the Indians’ closer and, while he’s a candidate to maintain that job, there are also rumblings about interest in free agent Trevor Hoffman and the Rockies’ Huston Street, one of the players they acquired in the Holliday deal. Despite a down year in 2008, don’t count Rafael Betancourt out of the Tribe’s bullpen plans, and Rafael Perez should be back in the mix as well.

The Indians could also use another infielder, preferably a second baseman who would allow them to move Asdrubal Cabrera to shortstop and the defensively challenged Jhonny Peralta to third. Brian Roberts’ name has been mentioned in trade rumors, and his addition would also allow Grady Sizemore to be moved out of the leadoff spot, but don’t expect him to come cheaply. Colorado’s Garrett Atkins has been mentioned as a third base option as well. If neither of these deals happen, don’t be surprised to see the return of Casey Blake.

The catching position is considered to be where Cleveland has a surplus of talent. One option would be to deal Kelly Shoppach to fill one of the aforementioned needs, and stick it out with Victor Martinez as their full-time catcher. An even more ambitious move would be to trade Martinez, and possibly fill more than one of their major needs. Neither of these players will be easy to part with, especially Martinez, but this may be what it’s going to take for this team to enter 2009 with anywhere near the level of optimism they had going into 2008.

Last, but certainly not least, as far as the Cleveland Indians are concerned, is the question of what to expect from Travis Hafner in 2009. Can we expect anything approaching his 2005-06 level of performance, or is Hafner’s career on a steep decline? I promised last week that I would not use a particular dirty word in this column, so I’m not going to speculate as to why Hafner is no longer the player most of us thought he was going to be. I haven’t completely given up on him yet, so I’m going to predict that his performance will return to a level that approximates what we saw from him in 2007 (24 HR in 545 AB, .266 BA, .385 OBP).

Other Items on the Burner

Of course, you all know that Evan Longoria and Geovany Soto were named AL and NL Rookies of the Year, respectively, and that the Cy Young Awards went to Cliff Lee (AL) and Tim Lincecum (NL), all deservedly so. Also, it came as no surprise that Joe Maddon won the AL Manager of the Year Award, and there was no major controversy with the NL Award going to Lou Piniella.

A few other notable hot stove developments from late this week:

• The Yankees are expected today to make an offer of 6 years and in the neighborhood of $140 million to CC Sabathia.
• The Yankees acquired the versatile Moneyball-darling Nick Swisher, who achieved the dubious distinction of the lowest batting average in the majors in 2008 (among players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title).
• Randy Johnson filed for free agency, after being unable to reach a contract agreement with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Johnson is 45, and has 295 career wins, but don’t expect him to remain unemployed.
• Milwaukee Brewers closer Salomon Torres announced his retirement, at age 36, after recording a career high 28 saves in 2008.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.