AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

By Kyle Soppe

Setting:   With the Red Sox the top dog in the daunting AL East, these 2 squads seem destined to battle for a wild card spot. I realize the BoSox are far from a lock to win the division, but either way, Tampa and New York are part of a 3 teams for 2 spots situation. Currently, the Yanks trail Boston by 1.5 games, while the Rays are7 games back. The battle in St. Petersburg will began tonight as ESPNs featured game and conclude on Thursday. In 5 contests this year, the Bronx Bombers have won 3 times, but they split the 2 games played at Tropicana Field back in mid May. The race for the playoff spot is clearly a marathon, and will not single handedly be decided here, but with the Rays teetering on the line of seller/buyer come the July 31^st trade deadline,  this series could very well determine the path they take come September.

Plot:  Fresh off a disappointing 16 inning loss on Johnny Damon bobble head day, the Rays will trust rookie pitcher Alex Cobb with the ball in game 1 of this series. The 23 year old righty debuted on May 1^st, and has steadily improved over the past 2 months. Serving as a fill in for injured starter Wade Davis, Cobb struggled with control early, but has compiled 3 strikeouts per walk over his last 3 starts.

The Yankees lineup is a patient one, and age old rule will apply for Cobb: location, location, location. Jeremy Hellickson, another promising 23 year old, will get his chance to tame the Yankee bats on Tuesday. The righty always gives his Rays a chance to win, averaging over 6 innings pitched per game. And although he has lost 4 of 5 starts over the last month, his statistics tell a different story. Boasting an impressive 3.21 era and 2 strikeouts for every walk, Hellickson figures to be a part of the Rays future, but is a part of the present as well.

If the Rays can split the first 2 games, they will be where they want to be, as they hand the ball to their 2 aces on Wednesday and Thursday. David Price and “Big Game” James Shields bring their talents to the mound to wrap up this divisional series. Price is a lanky lefty that highlights the youth movement in Tampa. Struggling in July, Price still has a season WHIP of 1.08 and nearly a strikeout per inning. He did give up #3,000 to Jeter, and figures to be pitching with a bit of a chip on his shoulder   WARNING … he has been a bit homer-prone lately, giving up 5 in his last 3 starts, including 3 vs. Boston on Friday.

The Yankees, even minus A-rod, have the power to take full advantage of any mistakes. Shields pitches the finale, looking to continue his career year. As the senior member of this staff (29 years old), he has lead by example, as his 2.60 era would suggest. He only has 8 wins, but his 7 complete games are a more compelling number, 3 of which are shutouts. On average, Shields gets 23 outs per start, which could be huge as the Rays bullpen figures to be beaten up after playing 3 games vs the BoSox and these 4 vs. the Yanks.

The Yankees struggled out of the break, dropping their first 2 games across the border in Toronto. They righted the ship, courtesy of stud CC Sabathia, on Sunday with a 4-1 win. They open this series with the wildly inconsistent AJ Burnett. An inspiring start to his season has inflated his season numbers a bit, so say we subtract that. A 4-7 record with a mid 4 era and ill-timed walks; he’s simply a bottom of the rotation guy these days. Strikeouts are sexy and grab headlines, so Burnett tends to be a bit overrated by the general public. His July 4^th start vs. Cleveland summed up his season. He struck out 4 batters in an inning, the headline to too many articles, as that doesn’t happen often. But that’s what happens when nobody knows where the ball is going. He gave up 4 runs in that inning and took the loss.

Bartolo Colon opposes Hellickson Tuesday night. Colon figures to be well rested after an abbreviated outing prior to the ASB. The 2005 Cy Young winner has had command issues since returning from the DL, and he no longer has the pitches to make up for the lack of control. Although he should benefit from the rest, the small ball approach of Joe Maddon could wear down the big righty.

Wednesday’s pitching matchup, on paper, is the biggest mismatch of the series. Opposing All Star Price, Freddy Sanchez needs to be at his best to keep pace with the donuts that seem to dominate scoreboards in games started by Price. Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise thus far, with a 3.43 era. But dig a little deeper, and that number seems poised to balloon. He gives up a hit per inning and has allowed opponents to bat .263. In a lineup that showcases great young players (Longoria, Upton, etc.) to go with veterans like Johnny Damon, Sanchez figures to struggle.

If the Rays can force the Yanks bullpen to enter the game early, that will apply even more pressure to CC Sabathia on Thursday. New York’s Cy Young candidate seems to deliver a big outing at every big moment. The league leader in wins, Sabathia is the definition of a top line starter. Pitch deep into games. Check. Pitch efficiently. Check. And most importantly, win games. Check. He has won his last 7 starts and will battle night in and night out. The stats are impressive (2.64 era, roughly 7.5 k/9, only 5 HRs allowed) but the mentality he brings to the ballpark can’t be measured. It’s as if he won’t let his team lose, and everybody buys in.

Final Word: The magic number or the Rays is 4. When scoring 4 or less runs, the Rays are 17-37, a trend that continued in last night’s marathon vs Boston.  Meaning when they score more than 4 runs, 33-6

Soppe Score: In this column, I refuse to pick series splits. With that said, I’ll take the Rays to protect their house and take 3 out of the 4 games. I think the Yankees are a more talented team over the long haul, but with these pitching matchups, I like Tampa. The storyline will be the Rays pitchers against the powerful Yankee bats, as those are the teams’ strengths. However, it will be the Rays ability to take advantage of the weak and inconsistent pitching of the Yankees that will win them this series and narrow the gap in the race for the AL wild card.

To fill the void, I considered borrowing from my own blog and posting about my recent trip to Turner Field in Atlanta, the 30th major league park I’ve visited in my lifetime. That total actually includes 10 stadiums that are no longer active, so I still have a ways to go to get to all of the current ones. But, as I was thinking about re-writing it a bit to make it more suitable for this site, I got another idea.

Yesterday, Randy Johnson became the 24th pitcher in major league history to notch his 300th win. A lot has been written and discussed about the near-extinction of the 300-game winner. Many think that Johnson may be the last of a dying breed, that the nature of today’s game is making it virtually impossible for a pitcher to accumulate this many victories. Could this be true? Will there ever be a 300-game winner again? One thing’s for sure…if it does happen, we’re going to have to wait quite some time until we see it again, especially considering we’ve just seen four guys get there in the past six years.

Following Johnson on the career victories list, among “active” pitchers—I use the term loosely because two of them haven’t thrown a pitch in the majors this season—are Jamie Moyer (250 wins/46 years old), Andy Pettitte (220/37), Pedro Martinez (214/37), John Smoltz (210/42), Tim Wakefield (184/42), Bartolo Colon (153/36) and Livan Hernandez (151/34). Barring a miracle, none of these players has even the slightest chance of reaching the milestone.

In my opinion, the three pitchers with the greatest chances of reaching 300 are Roy Halladay (140/32), CC Sabathia (122/28) and Johan Santana (116/30). Actually, Sabathia will turn 29 in July, so he’s really only one year younger than Santana and three younger than Halladay, both of whom had birthdays within the past few months.

Despite the fact that Sabathia is younger and has more wins, I consider Santana to be the leading candidate to be the game’s next 300-game winner. Since his first season as a full-time starter—2004—Santana has earned 86 wins in five seasons, an average of 17.2 per year. Sabathia has won 74 in the same time frame, although he has really begun to peak over the last three years.

Sabathia has been a regular starter since the age of 20. That’s more than eight full seasons, thus accounting for his current advantage. On the other hand, being under 30 and having just signed a long-term deal with a team that almost certainly will give him plenty of opportunity to be a consistent big-time winner is a factor that weighs in his favor.

After some injury troubles in his late 20s, Halladay has remained healthy for the past three full seasons. Still, if he wins 12 more games this year, then averages 18 over the next five years, this would put him at 242 at the age of 38. It would then take 4-5 more solid years after that to get to 300. So, I’m considering him the biggest long shot of the three.

If Santana wins 10 more this year, then averages 17 over the next six years, this leaves him at 228 at 36 years old. Even based on these more conservative estimates than those I used for Halladay, he would then be within striking distance if he puts together a couple more good years followed by a few solid ones. This still makes him a long shot, but not nearly the long shot that Halladay is.

Regardless, it’s going to be at least 10 or more years until someone even gets a whiff of the 300 mark. So, once again I’ll ask the question…will there ever be another 300-game winner? Who do you think has the best chance to do it?

The Yankees’ signings of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, while not necessarily the most economically sound moves, certainly have to make the rest of the league take notice. Despite missing the post-season last year with a payroll of over $2 million per victory, the Yankees still won 89 games while getting significantly less contribution from Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy than was expected. They will most likely get more out of Wang and Chamberlain this year, and despite the departure of Mike Mussina, the additions of Sabathia and Burnett should easily put them back in the playoff picture.

Don’t expect them to rest on these moves, either. By the time they’re done maneuvering, the Yankees, whether deserved or not, will be the favorite to win the AL East and, probably, the World Series. That distinction, of course, will be based on how the team looks on paper. Translating that to actual success is the thing the Yanks have had difficulty with in recent years.

Since I brought it up, we all know that making economically sound moves is not the Yankees’ modus operandi. In an era where it’s believed that championship contenders are built through a balance of developing good young talent and making key acquisitions of proven veteran performers, fans have become increasingly interested in whether or not their teams are spending their money wisely. That is, all except Yankees fans. Milwaukee Brewers loyalists know that, if they had signed Sabathia to a four-year, $100 million contract, and if he ended up contributing significantly less than being the hero he was last year, the team would not be able to overcome this. Even Red Sox, Mets, Angels and Dodgers fans know that their teams can ill afford to make a monumental mistake with a long-term free agent contract.

Yankees fans do not have this concern. They do not need to care whether or not Sabathia will be overpaid in the 5th, 6th and 7th years of this $161 million deal. If he is anything approaching the Sabathia of 2007 and 2008 for two or three years, he gives them a chance to climb back to the top of the heap. The Yankees have had several bad contracts on the books for quite a few years now, yet last year is the first that they fell short of the playoffs, and, even so, were still in contention for most of the year.

With a team payroll of $201 million for 2008, the Yankees spent $2.25 million per victory. Even the Mets, Tigers and Red Sox, all listed as having payrolls in the vicinity of $138 million, would have been as bad as the Seattle Mariners, the worst team in baseball, at that rate. Yet, if the Yankees improve this “efficiency” to $2 million per, that would translate to 100 wins. Only the three aforementioned teams, plus the Chicago White Sox, would have won as many as 60 games by that calculation.

I think you get my point. The Yankees don’t have to spend wisely to win. They do have to make better personnel decisions, though, and this is something that has eluded them in recent years. Will the Sabathia and Burnett signings, and whatever they do next, continue that trend, or will they finally hit the nail on the head with their major free agent acquisitions? We’ll have to wait and see, but I have to say that A.J. Burnett, who just agreed to a five-year, $82.5 million deal, somehow reminds me of a cross between Kevin Brown and Kyle Farnsworth. Again, we’ll have to wait and see.

The Mets still have some rotation issues to address, including their new #1 priority–the re-signing of Oliver Perez–but they could not have done a better job of shoring up their major area of weakness. The Francisco Rodriguez signing–three years, $37 million–was a no-brainer. With the Angels never making a serious attempt to re-sign him, beyond the contract extension they offered last winter, his move to Queens was a foregone conclusion. The market for closers this off-season was clearly a buyers’ market, and the Mets were the club with the most purchasing power.

The Mets have had a closer of Rodriguez’s caliber for the past three years, though, so would the K-Rod signing be enough to address the area that, inarguably, was the reason the Phillies were better in 2008? Apparently, they didn’t think so. The Mets had setup problems last year, even before Billy Wagner went down with an injury that will keep him out through the 2009 season, so just a day removed from acquiring their new closer, they traded for J.J. Putz in a three-way deal involving the Indians and Mariners.

In addition to Putz, the Mets acquired relief pitcher Sean Green and reserve outfielder Jeremy Reed. The Indians get reliever Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from the Mariners. The Mariners acquire outfielder Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians, outfielder Endy Chavez and pitcher Aaron Heilman from the Mets, in addition to prospects Mike Carp (the key to the deal), Jason Vargas, Ezequiel Carrera and Maikel Cleto.

The Putz acquisition shows that the Mets mean business about not letting last year’s downfall repeat itself. Not only does he instantly become the favorite for the best setup man in baseball, but Putz provides them with an insurance policy they wish they had last year. Well on his way to becoming one of the best closers in the American League–in fact, take a look at the 2007 numbers and try to convince me he wasn’t the best–until injuries set him back last year, Putz gives the Mets a backup plan that no other team has right now.

So, while the Yankees did the most spending–and, some will say, gambling–in Vegas last week, the Mets come away the biggest winners, by playing the percentages and knowing when to double down.

Of course, there were a few other recent moves by, and news items affecting, teams other than the Yankees and Mets. First and foremost, future first-ballot Hall of Famer Greg Maddux announced his retirement, after a 23-year career that included four consecutive Cy Young awards from 1992 to 1995, 355 career wins–the most among active pitchers–and a major league record 18 gold gloves.

On the free agent front, the Phillies signed outfielder Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $30 million deal, a move that signals the end of Pat Burrell’s days in Philadelphia. The Indians addressed their need for a closer, agreeing to terms on a two-year, $20 million contract with Kerry Wood. The Dodgers signed Casey Blake to return as their third baseman, giving him a three-year, $17.5 million deal, with a club option for a fourth year at an additional $6 million. Last but not least, shortstop Edgar Renteria signed a two-year, $18.5 million deal with the Giants.

In trade news, the Braves acquired starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from the White Sox, along with reliever Boone Logan, in exchange for shortstop Brent Lillibridge, catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. The Padres traded shortstop Khalil Greene to the Cardinals for relief pitching prospect Mark Worrell and a player to be named later. The Tigers completed two trades, acquiring starting pitcher Edwin Jackson from the Rays for outfielder Matt Joyce. This move came a day after they sent minor league pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo to the Rangers for catcher Gerald Laird.