Break out the rally cap Cardinals and Rays fans, this is going to be a tight one.

By Kyle Soppe

With 8-10 games left to be played, we take a look at the big series this weekend, and their playoff implications. The race for both the AL and NL wild card spots has tightened up, so instead of picking one series to preview, here is a brief rundown of the 4 teams playing for their postseason lives.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have used a September surge to get within shouting distance of division rival Boston in the race for the wild card. The Rays have used dominating pitching to make their move, while Evan Longoria provides the timely hit. Youngster Desmond Jennings is a terror on the base paths, and manager Joe Madden uses his skills in an aggressive manner. Obviously the Jays have nothing to play for, but their top two pitchers (Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow) are expected to face the Rays this weekend. That is a tough break, but the desperation of the Rays should propel them to a series win. Even with the Toronto aces, Tampa has the pitching advantage in every matchup. The Rays should score a handful of runs per game this weekend, and with the way their starters are pitching, that should be more than enough to take at least 2, if not all 3.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

An interesting series in which the playoff bound Yanks have nothing to gain, while the Red Sox have everything to lose. In the midst of a September swoon, the Red Sox have simply been awful in all facets of the game. They are 1-6 against the Rays this month, allowing a double digit wild card lead to be trimmed to 2.5. The Sox catch a break, as AJ Burnett (if you want to know how I feel about him, visit the “Playoff Push” podcast at the bottom right of this page) is the scheduled starter for Saturday’s matinée. Charlie Manuel said he “owed it to the game of baseball” to play his starters in games that will affect the playoff race, and I think Joe Girardi will have a similar approach. Don’t expect the Bronx Bombers to roll over this weekend, even with their postseason tickets punched. Mo Rivera won’t throw two innings, and CC won’t throw 120 pitches, but the powerful lineup figures to be assembled, in an effort to keep the BoSox out of October. Conspiracy Theory – The Yankees are only 4-11 against the Red Sox, while they are 8-6 against the Rays. Neither is impressive, but one would think that the Yanks would rather see Tampa in the postseason. Could this be little extra motivation for New York to try to win these games? That being said, Red Sox are in desperation mode, and will take 2 of 3.

Chicago Cubs @ Saint Louis Cardinals

The Redbirds are making a late push behind their stud Albert Pujols. Number 5 has been hot, and finally is batting over .300 for the year. When he goes into “Machine” mode, there isn’t a scarier or more imposing hitter in all of baseball. The Cardinals have won 12 of 14 keeping their opponent at four runs or less in nine of those contests. On top of a great rivalry and playoff implications, the Cubs are believed to be the front runner in the Pujols sweepstakes. The Cardinals need to be flawless to catch Atlanta, and they are simply a much better team than the Cubbies. Matt Holliday should be back in action, while Lance Berkman appears to be finding his stroke. Chris Carpenter has rediscovered his form, and is now the foundation to a patchwork rotation. I could very easily see the Cubs mailing it in a week or two early, especially with talented, but often unfocused, Starlin Castro as the teams leader. If the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs, it will be because The Braves hang on, not because the Cards implode. Saint Louis sweeps in front of a packed Busch Stadium.

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

Clearly, not only the Boston Red Sox are capable of making things more interesting than they need to be. The Braves have squandered their wild card lead (down to 1.5 games), and need to rebound quickly if they want a crack at that NL crown (that some columnist predicted would be in Atlanta this year). This collapse would be the biggest of all time in the final month of the season, surpassing the Angles who blew a 7.5 game lead in 1995. Consistent batting has been the major flaw all year for the Bravo’s. They have struggled against the middle to top tier pitching, scoring four or less runs 13 times in September already. They are a rather pedestrian 33-28 since the all-star break, and have been dealing with injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. Both pitchers figure to be healthy come October, but will their team be playing? The Braves catch a tough break, as Steven Strasburg will take the mound for the series opener on Friday. I think Strasburg pitches well in front of the bright lights, and will come out victorious on Friday night. After the prodigy, the Nats are very limited when it comes to their rotation. Chien-Ming Wang (3-3 4.51) and Ross Detwiler (2-5 3.76) are projected to start this weekend, and it’s hard to imagine either beating a team that needs both games. Braves offense finds a way to score runs, and takes 2 of 3, but that means dropping another game to the Cardinals.

By Paul Casey Gotham

Chances are this article’s title caused a few to jump to conclusions. Frequent readers know of my allegiance to the Boston Red Sox. It would be easy to dismiss this piece as nothing more than a bitter fan trying to take a poke at a rival. Fair enough. After all, mathematically speaking is the only way the Sox remain alive for the playoffs.

I have praised Derek Jeter on many occasions. He was the lead to my Respect for the opponent piece some two years ago. Ironically in that article, I commended Jeter for his ability to “wear” a pitch and gracefully take his spot at first base.

Jeter’s charade last week might have me re-thinking how I look at the Yankee captain. Yes, I know Boston’s Victor Martinez performed a similar pantomime earlier this season. Both feigned being hit by a pitch. Replays showed the truth. (For those who missed it, I have changed my stance on instant replay. If MLB wants to put a fifth umpire in the booth to make calls based on instant replay, then so be it.)

As to be expected other current and former professional athletes came to Jeter’s defense. Those pros talked about Jeter’s actions as being part of the game. They professed it is the player’s role to play and the umpire/referee’s role to make the call.

In other words, it is okay to “push the envelope.” To “manipulate the system.” To try and take advantage of the situation.” To “play on someone’s emotions.”

Yes, Jeter’s (and Martinez’s) was just one play. But it is hard to deny the mindset involved in making such a play. How does an individual shut off that frame of mind? Where does the game stop and real life take hold?

For example, we all file income taxes. Or, at least let’s hope we all do. That process represents an honor system of sorts. Recently, I brought a bag of clothes to the Planet Aid shed at a nearby church. I grabbed the paper receipt and wrote $50 on the line for the value of the donation. Maybe, I should put $150. There were no cameras in the area. That bag is long gone, and the IRS can’t check it. In fact, maybe I should have grabbed a handful of donation receipts and promptly pantomimed several visits to the yellow box.

Where does it end? Should I “manipulate the system?”

Oh, I know. It’s different.

Jeter is playing a game and taxes are real life. Last time I checked, his game is providing more real life cash than is my real life career.

Yeah, I get it. Again, it’s the mindset that bothers me. And the influence Jeter and ALL athletes have on society. When they “manipulate the system,” when they “push the envelope” and are allowed to get away with it, tacit approval is granted to others who want to try and take advantage of a situation.

Maybe it is a stretch for me to compare Jeter to Marc Dreier – the subject of a recent 60 Minutes segment.

Stay with me.

Dreier was found guilty of one of the most bizarre white collar crimes in American history.  Take a moment and watch the interview.

The similarities between Dreier and Jeter are…well…somewhat creepy.

Both are clean cut guys. Jeter is well-respected. Dreier was well-respected. Both used their place of position to get away with something illegal.

Again, I know. Dreier cheated people out of money. A lot of money. He committed an actual crime. Jeter…well…cheated in a game and got away with it.

Neither show any remorse. Dreier admitted not feeling bothered until the possibility of being caught was apparent. Jeter dismisses the ruse saying: “It’s part of the game. My job is to get on base. Fortunately for us it paid off at the time, but I’m sure it would have been a bigger story if we would have won that game.”

Both also are skillful in using rationalization.

In the end, I would still vote for Jeter if I had a hall-of-fame vote. He has more than proven himself on the field of play. I probably just wouldn’t pay too much attention to his acceptance speech. I’m not sure I could trust the source.

Another Rant from the Couch

by Bill Ribas

So here’s the scenario: I am sitting in front of the television, 7:30 Sunday night, with a pair of hot dogs just gleaming from a visit to the microwave, two Labatt’s Blue Lights (or as I like to call it, Canadian club soda), and as I click on over to see what channel the game is on, the first wave of indigestion hits – ESPN2? Seems like a game for the mothership, but no worries. I click on ESPN2, and I get a big message on the screen that says the game is not available in my area. Blacked out? What? Maybe it’s on an alternate channel, so I check in the 400′s (I have Dish tee vee by the way), where sometimes alternate games are found, and nothing. I can see it on NESN, but that’s blacked out too. So I think maybe they bounced it on over to 13, which is ABC and Disney and ESPN and whatever. But no, there’s some hillbilly carpenter raising people’s property taxes disguised as an upgrade.

So I sit there stunned. Opening day, blacked out, a game that is 384 miles away, according to the Google (just for grins, Yankee Stadium is 332 miles from here). Now my digital antenna that picks up local channels is supposed to reach 50 miles or so (on a good day), and even that leaves me over 300 miles short, and only if the game were on a local Boston channel.

So what do I do? Search the internets for a stream of the game, that’s what. I find a few that look like they’ll hack your system by the time you download the plug-in, and then lo and behold, ESPN 360 24 7 11 or whatever says it has the game. So I click on that, have to download a plug-in, and sit and watch a picture of Boston’s slugger, Big Pop-up or something. While I am convinced it won’t work, at 8 o’clock the screen changes, and there it is. Only I can’t see it full screen for whatever reason, so I have to open a different browser and fire it up in it, and then I can see the game.

Now the picture is good, but it’s not quite like the 40 something inch HD tee vee that sits in the background showing America’s Funniest Videos. And then the crushing irony hits me; at this point in time, technology has the ability to provide a blistering clear picture, while at the same times my eyes are fading into the sunset, and I can barely read the instructions on a box of Mac & Cheese without some store bought magnifying glasses. 6 feet away from me is a gorgeous Panasonic flat screen that registers razor sharp crisp lines, and I’m instead watching the game on a slightly blurry Dell laptop with a screen that might measure 14 inches. Oh sure, it might be the game, but it’s a bit fuzzy, and I kind of have to situate my head in the right spot, otherwise the image gets gray or turns into a negative looking view.

More beers. For some reason they make the game more palatable. Until those slackers from the Bronx start knocking the ball around, and it looks like it’s going to be a blowout. At least the Simpsons are on in the background, and there are a few laughs, although nothing like the old days.

When it’s 5-1, I’m thinking I should cut my losses and just flip over to the Pacific on HBO, but I have that set to record and can watch it later. Besides, there’s something about the opening day of the season that compels me to watch the game. And it wouldn’t matter if it were something like Washington-Pittsburgh, I’d still sit glued to the screen, because it’s a ritual. Sure, a month down the line I’ll be switching channels at the first sign of an error, but the opening day game is special. More beers.

Or so I thought, until I had to watch it on a laptop. At this point, the Sox have come back to tie the game, and I’m watching Undercover Boss, which isn’t a news flash about Bruce Springsteen, but a reality show where a boss goes about his business in different locations to find out what’s going on. Interesting premise, but it’s been the same show for weeks, just different companies. Now I am mad at myself for watching a stupid series that I knew was going to jump the shark, but it looks like the Yanks have gone ahead again, but it’s hard to tell because the picture is blurry, and I don’t want to risk opening another browser and screwing up the stream somehow (believe me, it would happen, my luck is terrible like that).

By now it’s close to 11, and I have a hunch that ESPN 1 or 2 will start showing the rest of the game beginning at the top of the hour. I have seen it happen before on blacked out games, and my excitement needs to be tempered a bit, just in case, with more beers. And then suddenly, there it is in all its glory. The colors are brilliant across 40 something inches, but there’s just one thing that’s off, and that’s the sharpness. At first I think I must be on the regular and not the HD channel, but then I realize it’s because my eyelids are half open. When I get them open all the way, the picture is fine. But a strange mixture of gravity and old age has crept up on me (that and some Canadian club sodas), and I can barely strain to see the Sox take the lead. The next thing I know, Jeter looks like he is trying to sell me a Slap Chop, and it’s at that point that I realize the game is long over, my neck hurts from laying sideways across my shoulder and being stuck at an odd angle on the couch, and my Slap Chop should be here in 4 to 6 weeks.

I stumble up to bed hoping that maybe, just maybe Santana can win the Mets game tomorrow, a game that I should be able to see in its entirety, or at least most of it, wide awake, just me and the Panasonic before the kids get home. I do not for the life of me understand blackout rules and regulations, outside of any game that I really want to see I won’t be able to, and contemplate moving next to a sports bar. Like Casey, I have struck out, at least as far as the opening day game is concerned. Kind of like going to church for a wedding but getting there when everything is done, and the reception line is outside and almost over.

I suppose there’s always next year.

AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

Another week and we have another great performance by a Boston Red Sox opponent. Last week, the Bronx Bombers earned recognition. The nomination caused some confusion on the Pine.

This week, Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers grabs the honors.

Verlander struck out eight and walked one in eight shutout innings as the boys from Motown downed the Sox 2-0. The Old Dominion product limited Boston to just four hits helping the Tigers avoid a four-game sweep at Fenway. To top it off, Verlander sent home a message in the eighth as he regularly clocked in at 99 mph. On his 122nd pitch of the game, Verlander hit the century mark.

Who gets your POTW?

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Jacoby Ellsbury grabs my POTW. The Red Sox centerfielder provided a spark that the slumbering Sox needed.

Ellsbury went 14-32 for the week with 12 runs scored, 4 RBI, and 4 stolen bases including a home run, and 2 triples to go with 5 base on balls.

To top it off, the native of Madras, Oregon showed some magic with his glove as he stole a pair of runs from the Orioles with this grab.

Who gets your POTW?

article.jsp?ymd=20090731&content_id=6165820&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

The Phillies didn’t land Roy Halladay, but they have officially declared themselves the team to beat in the National League with Wednesday’s signing of reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee. The Phils now have the unusual problem of having too much starting pitching, with Lee and the also recently acquired Pedro Martinez joining Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton in the rotation, with J.A. Happ and Rodrigo Lopez likely moving to the bullpen.

Speaking of Halladay, according to Toronto General Manager J.P. Ricciardi, trade talks involving the Blue Jays right-hander are dead, but the club remains willing to listen to offers. So, did we learn anything new from that statement? Most likely not, but with today’s trade deadline of 4 p.m. ET fast approaching, it appears that the Jays are unlikely to move him, with the only real contenders for his services being the Red Sox and the Dodgers.

Halladay may be staying put, but Jarrod Washburn isn’t, with the Tigers acquiring him from the Mariners today in a move that improves their status as the favorite to win the AL Central, although the Twins and White Sox still might have something to say about that. Washburn appears to have resurrected his career this year, posting an 8-6 record with a 2.64 ERA, and is well on his way to his best season since he was the ace of the 2002 World Series champion Anaheim Angels staff.

The Red Sox may not get Halladay, but it seems unlikely that they’re not going to add another bat by the deadline, with the rumor mill saying that they’re close to a deal with the Indians that would bring Victor Martinez to Boston, in exchange for Clay Buchholz. Martinez has split time between catcher and first base for Cleveland this year, but it’s unclear how much the Red Sox would plan on using him behind the plate. The deal would make Adam LaRoche expendable, however, so the word is that they’re looking to find a taker for him as well.

The Twins, in dire need to improve upon a weak offensive middle infield, have worked out a deal with the Athletics to bring Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota. He’ll likely replace Nick Punto (.208 BA, .568 OPS) at shortstop, with Brendan Harris already pushing Alexi Casilla (.171 BA, .474 OPS) out of second base duties.

In a couple of smaller, but not insignificant deals involving left-handed relief pitchers, the Dodgers bolstered their bullpen by acquiring George Sherrill from the Orioles, and the Pirates dealt John Grabow to the Cubs.

By the time you read this, of course, a few of the questions regarding potential trades will already be answered. What are your opinions on these recent developments in Major League Baseball? Please share with the bench and let’s get the discussion started.

Following up Chas’ insightful analysis of the National League, let’s take a look at how the American League is stacked up for the 2009 season.

East

Baltimore Orioles – Current GM Andy McPhail is mid stream in his rebuilding process of the Orioles. The O’s locked up Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis to long term contracts -  a step in the right direction for the O’s. The 2009 starting pitching staff is questionable to start the season with Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, and newcomer Koji Uehara. But don’t fear O’s fans, help should be on the way by mid season with top prospects Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta just about ready for the major league level. Adam Jones and Luke Scott round out a young OF. Top Prospect Matt Weiter was sent down to start the season – but for how long?

Boston Red Sox – Now that the Manny Ramirez fiasco is behind them,  the Red Sox appear primed for another run at a World Series title. David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew appear to be healthy – can they stay healthy and can they be productive? The Red Sox added pieces to their bullpen, which for better part of 2008 was inconsistent. Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito were added  and Justin Masterson was left in the bullpen. Starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz were brought in to battle for the #5 position in the rotation. Penny has been throwing well, but can he hold up? Where will Smoltz go when he is ready in June? The Red Sox farm system is loaded with pitching, starting with Clay Bucholtz, Micheal Bowden, Daniel Bard, and Junichi Tazawa. Will one of them be traded during the season if the Red Sox offense falters?

New York Yankees – Much was made about the Yankees and their spending during the off-season. But there is no doubt  the Yankees addressed some major needs. Gone are  Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. Players that symbolized the Yankees recent frustration in not winning the World Series.  A-Rod’s off-season was welcome documented, and had to have surgery to take care of a cyst on his hip. However, the torn labrum remains – how will that affect his play when he comes back?  A-Rod, Mark Texiera and Jorge Posada should be extremely formidable . Sabathia and Burnett have been added to what is quite possibly the best rotation in MLB.  Wang,  Pettite and Chamberlain round out the rest of the rotation. Questions remain with the bullpen – not with the closer, but can Marte and Bruney bridge the gap between starters and Mariano? How will A.J. Burnett respond to playing in New York?

Toronto Blue Jays -  If any team took a hit this off-season it was the Blue Jays. A.J. Burnett left for the Yankees,and  young pitchers Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are potentially out for the season with shoulder problems. Both could be back by the end of the season, but if the season isn’t going anywhere – look for the Jays to shut them down.  However Roy Halladay remains and expect him to be a workhorse for the Jays. Lineup remains formidable – led by Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen.

Tampa Bay Rays – Last year’s surprise team, the Rays look to build off a season that got them to the World Series.  Look for Evan Longoria to be a MVP candidate. Carl Crawford is healthy and looks to have a bounce back year.  The rest of the lineup is strong with Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, offseason acquisition Pat Burrell and Akinori Iwamura. Starting rotation is strong with Jamie Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and an underrated Andy Sonnastine.  Top prospect David Price was sent to the minors to start the season, but should be back up to take the fifth spot in the rotation.  Closer is slightly suspect with Troy Percival taking the reins. Grant Balfour, J. P. Howell and Dan Wheeler round out a good bullpen. With such a strong AL East, can the Rays build off last year?

Central

Cleveland Indians -  The Indians look to rebound from a disappointing 2008 campaign. The lineup, led by Grady Sizemore is formidable and will be even stronger if Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner can return to form. Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona create one the best 1-2 punches in baseball at the top of the rotation, but can Scott Lewis, Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes fill out the rest of the rotation? Jake Westbrook is on the mend and beginning to throw. His return in May/June should provide stability for the back end of the rotation. Kerry Wood was brought in to be the closer and should eliminate a huge need for the Indians.

Chicago White Sox -  A team that is balancing rebuilding and making a run for the World Series at the same time. Carlos Quentin, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko anchor a lineup that lead the American League in Home Runs last year. But the lineup also has youngsters such as Dewayne Wise, Alexei Ramirez, Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  How will manager Ozzie Guillen handle the youngsters if they struggle early? Starting rotation is anchored by the veteran Mark Buehrle and youngsters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks. Can Jose Contreras make it back from the Achilles injury of a year ago? Bullpen is solid with Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton and Scott Linebrink

Minnesota Twins – Lineup is made up a combination of speed and power which suits the Metrodome. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer lead the offense and the Twins are counting on Joe Crede and Michael Cuddyer to provide big bats behind Morneau. Starting rotation is young, but was solid last year. Francisco Liriano leads the rotation and is a year away from Tommy John surgery. Liriano could be a Cy Young candidate this year. Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker were welcomed surprises last year and certainly hope to build off 2008.  Bullpen is solid led by closer Joe Nathan.

Kansas City Royals – This could be this year’s surprise team. Off season additions of Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs provide additional speed, power and defense to solid lineup. Alot of Royals’ success in contingent on Alex Gordon who has been compared to George Brett. Time for Gordon to step up and take the next step.  Gile Meche and Zack Greinke lead a decent Royals rotation. Greinke has been mentioned by experts to be a potential Cy Young candidate this year.  Bullpen is strong led by Joakim Soria.

Detroit Tigers -  Another team that is balancing rebuilding and making a run at title. The offense lead by Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco. Is Cabrera ready to take the next step, as experts are touting MVP and Triple Crown potential for him. Starting rotation is a mess, as Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander try to return to form. Both Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis start the season on the DL.  In the meantime, can Verlander and Armando Galarraga tread water until both get back.  Can Edwin Jackson provide stabilization in the lineup. Tigers replaced Todd Jones as their closer with Brandon Lyons. Joel Zumaya begins the year on the DL, but should be back relatively soon to help out Fernando Rodney and Bobby Seay.

West

Los Angeles Angels – The Angels lost out in the Texeira Sweepstakes and were probably the team hurt most by it.  Offense again is lead by Vlad, Tori Hunter and addition Bobby Abreu. For as much as Vlad swings at the first pitch he sees, Abreu should offset him with his deliberate approach at the plate. Is Chone Figgins healthy and ready to wreck havoc at the top of the lineup?  Starting rotation is strong but Mike Scioscia has to be concerned. Both starters John Lackey and Ervin Santana start the season on the DL, and Kelvim Escobar is coming off an injury from last season.  Can the rotation hold up until all 3 are healthy? Brian Fuentes was brought in to replace K-Rod. Bullpen is solid with Fuentes, Scott Shields and Jose Arredondo.

Oakland Athletics -  When looking at the A’s roster, one would believe there are mixed messages. The pitching staff is extremely young. The only pitcher of recognition is Justin Duscherer and he starts the season the DL. But Billy Beane is well… Billy Beane and has added veterans to the lineup. Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday pack a solid 3-4 punch in the lineup. Can Orlando Cabrera conform to Beane’s style of offense? Holliday, who is a free agent at the end of the year just on a 4 month stop in Oakland?

Texas Rangers – Some what of a same story scenario is Texas. All hitting and suspect pitching.  Lineup is stacked from hitters 1-9, led by Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler  and reclamation project – Andruw Jones. Youngsters Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis have the ability to hit 30-40 HRs apiece this year. Is catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia ready to take the next step and become a star.  Starting rotation is lead by Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla. If Brandon McCarthy,  and Kris Benson can provide something at the back of the rotation, this team could make a run at the AL West.

Seattle Mariners -  A team that largely stood pat for much of the off-season. Offense still centers around Ichiro, but Ken Griffey Jr., Franklin Gutierrez,  Jose Lopez and Adrian Beltre will be counted on. Beltre is in a contract year and the last time that happened, he hit 46 home runs that year.  Felix Hernandez leads a pitching staff that could be strong.  If Erik Bedard lives up to his promise – could provide a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. How Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Ryan Rowland-Smith hold how the back of the rotation, remains to be seen. Can Brandon Morrow replace J.J. Putz who was traded to the Mets? If not, it could be a long season for the bullpen.

While I was still reveling in the aftermath of Nazareth’s triumph in Troy, NY, the news out of Boston wasn’t as joyous. Curt Schilling announced on Monday through his blog 38Pitches.com, he was officially retiring from the game of baseball. With “zero regrets” Schilling was walking away from the game. Immediately the debate began – his bloody sock from 2004 is in the Hall of Fame – would he be joining it? If you ask anyone on New England the answer would undoubtedly be yes. New Englanders aren’t quick to forget and when he arrived in Boston in 2004, he promptly announced,  ”I guess I hate the Yankees now.”  A legend was born and Schilling was annointed the role of savior. For most of New England, it was music to their ears and he quickly delivered on his promise with a World Championship that year.  He followed that up with another in 2007. But is he a Hall of Famer? Let’s take a  look:

The Case:

A. While most people will point to the fact that at the age of 30, Schilling was a mere 52-52 in his major league career. For the next 12 years, Schilling went on to win 164 more games. Only 7 other pitchers won more during that span and four of them are Randy Johson, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez. That is pretty elite company – of which all 4 are probably Hall of Famers.

B. Schilling ranks 14th on the all-time strikeout list with 3,116 strikeouts. Which by itself doesn’t seem that impressive until you consider:

C. Schillings strikeout to walk ratio was 4.38 – the best of any pitcher since 1900. That isn’t a typo – that really is 1900.

D. According to Bill James’ Adjusted ERA (Thanks Chas ), Schilling’s is 127  – good for 43rd on the all-time list. It also ties him with players such as Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver – Hall of Famers.

E. His Postseason record. Ask any New Englander and they will tell you that Schilling has a big mouth. But he also walked the walk, and talked the talk. During 19 postseason starts, he was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.  He was also 4-0 in 5 Elimination games and could be considered the best “big game” pitcher of this century.

F. 3 World Series Championships

While most people will argue that his career 216 wins and no Cy Young Awards should prevent him from getting in the Hall of Fame, I would charge that Schilling probably cost himself another 20-30 wins by sacrificing his body during 2004. Most pitchers would have packed it in, but Schilling sacrificed everything for his teammates and for fans that had been waiting 86 years for a championship. Personally that supersedes any amount of wins needed to get into the Hall. And for the Cy Young awards – he finished second 3 times behind historic seasons from Randy Johnson and Johann Santana.  That is like punishing Phil Mickelson for being the second best golfer behind Tiger Woods, because  Tiger was taking over the golfing world.

In the end, as  a Red Sox fan – I am grateful for Curt Schilling. Watching Schilling gut out every moment of the 2004 playoffs was incredible to witness.  I believe it is safe to say that he will never have to pick up another tab in New England.  Do I think Curt Schilling is  Hall of Famer? Yes, but not a first ballot.  I just hope I am able to be there for his speech in Cooperstown. Better bring a chair though – it is going to be one heck of a speech.

Actually, what started out as an attempt to discuss the most significant players on the 2009 ballot, turned into an argument for the candidacy of one particular player. It just so happens that the player in question received only 24.3% of the vote last year, in his first year of eligibility. In fact, he received only one-third the amount of support as another player, who happened to play the same position that he did, and who is much less deserving of the honor. But, I’m not going to get into comparing these two players. If you’re interested, you can read about that here. I just want to make the case for the guy I feel is the second most deserving candidate on this year’s ballot.

So, since I actually intended to cover more ground in this week’s column, I’m going to give you this week’s Cooking with Chas in two parts–or more.

First, let me weigh in on a subject that can get a bit controversial. That is, the discussion of whether or not a player is worthy of first-ballot election or not. There are some who will complain that a Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, and why should it matter how many years a player has been on the ballot? Why does a less than obvious candidate have to wait it out and pay his dues–so to speak–until he’s elected? I thoroughly agree with these complaints, particularly when it comes to those voters who refuse to vote for a player in his first year of eligibility. However, when a player is not Willie Mays or Tom Seaver, voters are entitled to change their minds. I’ll admit to having changed my mind about a few players on this year’s ballot. I will also say that, when I change my mind, it’s usually in favor of a player. So, I think it’s somewhat understandable that the longer a name is on the ballot, the more there exists the opportunity for voters to consistently hear the arguments in favor of the player and be swayed to the positive side. This probably doesn’t explain how someone can jump from 29% of the vote to 72% in a span of ten years, but it does justify it to some extent.

With that said, let’s begin by taking a look at the players who I consider to be at the head of this year’s class.

Rickey Henderson, of course, is the most deserving player on this year’s ballot. Should I waste any time, or space here, explaining this selection? Probably not, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking: 1406 SB (1st all-time), 2295 runs (1st), 2190 BB (2nd), 3055 hits, .401 OBP, 127 OPS+, 535 win shares (400 means absolute HOF enshrinement, according to Bill James).

Tim Raines, while maybe not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, should be fairly obvious as well. In the 80s, he was the National League’s version of Rickey Henderson. That is, the best leadoff hitter in his respective league. He was not quite as good as Henderson, of course, but that’s certainly no insult. He had an OBP of .390 or better, which ranked in the top six in the NL, in seven seasons in that decade, despite not playing in his first full season until 1982. Also in the 80s, he ranked first or second in runs scored four times (six times in the top ten), and in the top four in stolen bases eight times, including leading the league for four consecutive years from 1981 to 1984. He also ranked in the top three in runs created for five consecutive years (1983 to 1987).

Raines had an excellent prime, but there was a bit of a drop-off after he left Montreal. Still, although his base stealing ability declined quickly from his early to mid-30s, he remained a good offensive player with a high OBP and decent power. He also played a significant part-time role for two World Series teams in his late 30s, and accumulated 390 win shares over the course of his career. I said earlier that Bill James, the creator of win shares, has stated that 400 is the plateau for automatic enshrinement in Cooperstown. James has also called 300 the level at which a player is more likely than not to enter the Hall of Fame. The last ten position players to be inducted have averaged 377, from Kirby Puckett’s 281 to Eddie Murray’s 437, with Wade Boggs (394) and Tony Gwynn (398) achieving the closest totals to Raines’ 390.

Raines also had a career OBP of .385, an OPS+ (park/league adjusted OPS) of 123 (23% better than average), and is 5th on the career stolen bases list with 808, at an outstanding success rate of 84%. By comparison, Rickey Henderson was successful 80% of the time, and Lou Brock’s rate was 75%. Speaking of Brock, baseball-reference.com’s similarity scores judge him to be the player whose career mostly closely compares to Raines’.

Brock is not only a Hall of Famer, but he was elected on the first ballot. I’m a strong advocate that we should never argue that one player deserves to make it just because another undeserving player did. I’m not saying Brock is undeserving, although he is over-rated and has nothing on Raines, other than 130 stolen bases–which is more than offset by having been caught stealing 161 more times–and the fact that he reached the artificially magical milestone of 3000 hits.

Raines beats him in win shares (390 to 348), and tops him easily in OBP (.385 to .343), OPS+ (123 to 109) and runs created per 27 outs (6.6 to 5.2), while maintaining fairly comparable statistics in other more traditional cumulative categories (39 fewer runs, 80 more RBI, 21 more HR). Furthermore, Raines never won a Gold Glove, but he was an above average outfielder, and Brock was a surprisingly poor defender, making 10 or more errors in 12 different seasons. Yes, you’re reading that correctly. He made 196 errors in 19 seasons, with a .959 fielding percentage, as an outfielder.

But, as I said, Brock’s shortcomings should not be an argument for Raines’ candidacy. However, I have no problem saying that Raines compares favorably with the two men considered to be the best speed-oriented leadoff hitters in the second half of the 20th century. In fact, if you asked me to rate them in order, I’d feel very confident rating Raines behind Henderson, but ahead of Brock. Therefore, Tim Raines is, without question, a Hall of Famer.

This Week on the Hot Stove

Since this is supposed to be a weekly look at the hot stove, otherwise known as Major League Baseball’s off-season, I’m going to make sure to spend a little time selectively discussing this week’s most significant developments.

Trevor Hoffman reportedly agreed to a one-year contract to take over as the Milwaukee Brewers’ closer. The career saves leader’s deal is worth $6 million and includes an option for a second year, which could give him a chance at reaching the 600-save plateau.

While neither deal has been confirmed, the Boston Red Sox apparently signed a pair of starting pitchers, both of whom are coming off of injury plagued seasons, but who could also prove to be tremendous bargains. John Smoltz, who will turn 42 in May, and Brad Penny, who will be 31 but is probably a bigger question mark, both are believed to have signed one-year deals in the range of $5 million plus incentives. It’s really hard to imagine Smoltz not being effective, if healthy, so I have to believe that he’ll make a contribution in 2009. However, Penny has some upside if healthy, but even in his best year (2007), he was an over-rated pitcher who benefited greatly from pitching in Chavez Ravine. That year, his K/BB ratio was unimpressively less than 2-to-1 and the 9 HR he allowed in 208 IP were an aberration when compared with his career numbers. Expect him to be a better–but not necessarily by much–version of last year’s Bartolo Colon.

The Chicago Cubs signed the much maligned Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal. Bradley will play right field and will add a run-producing bat to the heart of the North-siders lineup. He’ll also wear Sammy Sosa’s #21. The biggest question facing the Cubbies now will be, who will lead the team in temper tantrums–Bradley or manager Lou Piniella.

Pat Burrell signed a two-year, $16 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. The defensive-challenged Burrell will likely spend most of 2009 at DH for the defending AL champs.

Jason Giambi signed a one-year deal to return to his original team, the Oakland Athletics. The agreement is worth $4 million, with a club option for 2010.

Stay tuned this weekend for Part 2 of “Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Class”, as well as a summary of some of the less significant hot stove transactions of the past week.

It appears that Mark Teixeira is going to decide where he’ll settle before we hear any news about Manny Ramirez–unless he decides to retire, that is. Yesterday, it was reported that the Red Sox were closing in on signing Tex to an 8-year deal, believed to be valued at $184 million. Then, this morning the word is that the Sox are backing out of the Teixeira sweepstakes. In an e-mail to the Associated Press, Boston owner John Henry stated that they had been outbid and were no longer going to be a factor in the competition for his services. This, of course, begs the questions, who were they outbid by, and are the Red Sox bluffing?

In answering the first question, I’m sure most everyone will agree that the obvious answer is the Yankees, but Brian Cashman was also quoted as saying that his team is not the high bidder. So, is there another team that offered more than $23 million per year for 8 years? It’s hard to believe that team could be the Orioles or the Nationals. Frankly, if it’s the latter, this writer’s opinion is that it’s a big mistake. I suppose it could be the Angels, but more than likely–to answer the second question–it’s that the Sox are bluffing, possibly because they believe that Teixeira’s agent, Scott Boras, is feeding them misinformation regarding other offers he’s received for his client.

Prediction: the Red Sox and Teixeira agree to a deal by the end of this weekend.

The other major news item from this past week is the Dodgers signing of Rafael Furcal to a three-year, $30 million deal, with a vesting option for a fourth year at an additional $12 million. The vesting option is believed to be contingent upon Furcal reaching 600 plate appearances in the third year of the contract.

The signing was not without some controversy, however. The Braves are now saying that they will never again deal with Furcal’s agents–the Wasserman Media Group, led by Paul Kinzer and Arm Tellem–believing that the firm reneged on a deal they had with its client. In a statement issued by Tellem, he claims there was no such agreement, and that the Braves knew that Furcal was sleeping on their offer, which was believed to be very similar to the Dodgers’. Atlanta team president John Schuerholz, however, is quoted as saying, “Having been in this business for 40-some years, I’ve never seen anybody treated like that…I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list”.

Prediction: the Braves back off their stance and eventually sign Wasserman client Randy Wolf.

Venturing into territory previously uncharted by Cooking with Chas, the Houston Astros’ all-time leader in games pitched, Dave Smith, died this week at age 53. Smith, a two-time all-star who also is second on the Astros’ career saves list, apparently died of a heart attack on Wednesday. He is remembered by those who played with and against him as a fierce competitor, and by teammates and friends for his generosity and zest for life. Giants third base coach and former big leaguer Tim Flannery, who also served on the Padres’ coaching staff with Smith from 1999 to 2001, called him “…the most giving, unconditionally compassionate man anyone ever came across…” and fondly remembers him “…reaching into his pocket and pulling out $100 to give to someone selling newspapers for a quarter”.

Personally, I remember Smith for the part he played in what I recall as the most exciting baseball post-season I’ve ever witnessed. During my sophomore year in college, I was part of a group of haters who rooted passionately against the 1986 Mets of Gary Carter, Keith Hernandez, Lenny Dykstra and Ray Knight, even going so far as to cheer for the Red Sox in the World Series. This, of course, is the primary reason I hate the Red Sox to this day–the one time I rooted for them…well, you know what happened. But, despite the fact that the ’86 Astros were essentially a one-man show, that entire team holds a place near and dear to my heart for the valiant effort they put forth, despite being seriously over-matched.

Smith didn’t pitch very well in that LCS, most notably blowing game three by yielding a 9th inning game-winning two-run home run to Lenny Dykstra, and ruining the Astros’ chances of going up 2-1 on the Mets with Mike Scott–the aforementioned one-man show–throwing the next day. However, he was as much a part of that team as Billy Hatcher, Glenn Davis, Charlie Kerfeld and Alan Ashby. Actually, as I peruse the box scores of that series, I realize that he was probably the biggest reason his team lost, but I love the ’86 Astros, and Dave Smith was loved by his teammates. Rest in peace, Flight 45.

In other hot stove news, 46-year old starting pitcher Jamie Moyer, the oldest player in baseball, and the Phillies agreed to a two-year deal worth $13 million. The Phillies also signed Chan Ho Park to a one-year, $2.5 million contract, which could go to as high as $5 million with incentives. Park may compete for a spot in their rotation or fill a bullpen role.

The Royals and Kyle Farnsworth agreed to a two-year, $9.25 million deal. He’ll become the right-handed half of a bullpen duo with Ron Mahay, setting up for closer Joakim Soria.

The Angels re-signed outfielder Juan Rivera, to a three-year, $12.75 million deal, a move that decreases the likelihood that they’ll be interested in pursuing free agent Manny Ramirez. Rivera will continue to fill the role of the Halos’ fourth outfielder and part-time designated hitter.

Needing a new home after the Cardinals completed a trade for Khalil Greene, Cezar Izturis headed back to the American League, signing with the Orioles to be their shortstop. The sides agreed this week on a two-year, $6 million deal.

The Astros agreed to a pair of one-year, $750,000 deals. Aaron Boone will be the right-handed half of a third base platoon with Geoff Blum, and Jason Michaels will be their fifth outfielder.

The Diamondbacks brought in Felipe Lopez to play second base when they agreed to terms on a one-year contract worth $3.5 million.

Adam Everett signed with the Tigers, to replace Edgar Renteria as their shortstop, for one year at $1 million plus incentives.

Finally, here’s a brief rundown of recent news related to former Red Sox players. Alan Embree will become the Rockies’ primary left-handed setup man, agreeing to a $2.25 million, one-year contract. Outfielder Trot Nixon and pitcher Matt Clement were signed to minor league deals–Nixon by the Brewers and Clement, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since June 2006–with the Blue Jays. Second baseman Mark Loretta signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers. Pitcher Lenny DiNardo received a spring training invitation from the Royals.