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Tuesday with Smitty: Super Bowl XLIII
By Aaron M Smith
Super Bowl XLIII
Like you didn’t see this coming – please. After 17 weeks of the regular season and 3 weeks of playoff football, we arrive to our destination – Tampa, FL – site of Super Bowl XLIII. So as I sit here getting my first listen to Bruce Springsteen’s new album..er CD, “Working on a Dream”, I am going to make an attempt to break down the final game and see what prediction we have at the end. So as Outlaw Pete is blasting through the speakers, let’s get this thing started:
Quarterback -
Let’s start with one of the key matchups in the game – Big Ben vs. Kurt Warner. The old veteran is back in the big game for the third time vs. the young star that is here for the second time in his short career. The two quarterbacks have contrasting styles as Warner relies on his precision passing to his big play receivers, while Roethlisberger seems to thrive when he is outside the pocket, making defenders miss him. Both quarterbacks have lot of weapons at their disposal, but if Warner is given the time, he could pick the Steelers secondary apart. How will the Steelers pressure Warner? If they blitz, they run the risk of one on one coverage on both Fitzgerald and Boldin. If they try to rush Warner and don’t have success he will pick them apart. Roethlisberger struggled in his first Super Bowl, but he was a rookie that year – expect a better game from him this time around. Advantage: Slight edge to Cardinals
Running Back -
Both backfields have struggled and the Cardinals will have a rookie RB in the backfield in Tim Hightower. Against this tough, tough Steelers defense, will he be able to protect the ball? Will Edgerrin James and Hightower be able to run against this vaunted Steelers defense? Willie Parker of the Steelers was hurt for most of the year, but appears to have come on during the playoffs. This could be the game that he explodes for MVP numbers. If the Cardinals can have success running the football, it should give Warner more time. If Parker and Carey Davis can run the ball effectively, it might allow the Cardinal offense from getting on the field and allow them to slow the game down. Advantage: Slight edge to the Steelers
Wide Receiver/ Tight End -
Da' Man
This may be the biggest strength of the Cardinals, as they are deep at the receiver position with Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston and the possibly the best receiver in the NFL – Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals’ corp took a hit when Jerheme Urban went down with a torn ACL in the Wild Card game. Still – this group gives Defenisve Coordinators nightmares and should be a problem for the Steelers defensive backfield. Troy Polamalu has made a living of being able to play CF on defensive schemes. Unfortunately, he may not be able to do that during these games – which might take away from his effectiveness. The Steelers’ Receiver Corps is not too bad in itself lead by Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington. Expect this corp to test the Cardinal defensive backs and they are young and inexperienced. How healhty is Ward? How are the Steelers going to stop Fitzgerald? Advantage: Cardinals
Offensive Lines -
Don’t know too much about either of them, but you don’t hear about either being bad – and that is a good thing. Can the Cardinals line open up holes for their running backs? Can they keep James Harrison and LaMar Woodley off of Kurt Warner’s back? The Cardinals were tough against the run throughout the playoffs, so how will the Steelers fair? The Cardinals will be sure to blitz, can the Steelers O-Line give Big Ben time to complete passes? Advantage: Tied
Defenses –
A Quarterback's Nightmare
We are talking about the #1 defense against a defense that was average until the playoffs started. That being said, the Cardinals defense has been aggressive during the playoffs, creating a huge turnover ratio in their favor. Expect them to continue to be aggressive and try to force mistakes by Roethlisberger. As for the Steelers defense – they love to put pressure on the Quarterback and Sunday should be no difference. Expect Harrison (16 sacks in the regular season) and Woodley (11.5 sacks ) to try and pressure Warner all day. Warner is not a mobile quarterback and if forced out of the pocket, could mean a long day for the Cardinals’ offense. Can the Steelers’ secondary cover the wide receivers of the Cardinals? Vice versa, will the young Cardinals’ secondary give up the big play or make a mistake? Advantage: Steelers
Kickers/Punters –
Cardinals’ kicker Neil Rackers has both a big leg and an accurate one. Jeff Reed who has made a living kicking on the terrible conditions on Heinz Field, so kicking under favorable conditions should be easy. Both punters are equal and both are good. Special teams on both teams are excellent. Expect one of the kickers to decide this game. Who has the nerves? Advantage: Tied
Coaching -
Both coaches are young and in their first Super Bowl as a head coach. Ironically both of them have coached in a Super Bowl game, when they both were assistants under Bill Cowher. Experience should help both in preparation, but will they be ready when the season is on the line? Steelers Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau may is considered by many to be the best defensive coach. Can he control Kurt Warner and his receivers in check. Todd Staley, the Offensive Coordinator did put up 32 points against a pretty good Eagles defense. Can he do it again? Advantage: Slight edge Steelers
Prediction: This game is going to be close. In the end though, the Steelers defense is going to be too much for the Cardinals. Heart says Cardinals, rest of me says Steelers. Then again, the Cardinals have been surprising me all post season.
Pittsburgh Steelers are the Super Bowl Champions 33-31.
Enjoy!!
12 Responses to “Tuesday with Smitty: Super Bowl XLIII”
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Great break down of the game Smitty.
What no MVP prediction?
C’mon Smitty who’s it gonna be?
I am predicting I will quickly grow tired of the Oreo commercials with the Williams and Manning kids.
I mentioned it already.. Very quietly hinted at it. My pick is Willie Parker.
This just in – the new Bruce Springsteen album is pretty good.
My son and his buddies, rather than predict a score, are predicting the 3 songs they expect The Boss to sing at halftime. His choices; Lucky Day, Waitin’ on a Sunny Day, and Dancin’ in the Dark. My predictions; Born in the USA (for patriotic reasons), Sunny Day (for Fla site), and Thunder Road (plugging NASCAR for the network). I would expect him to get in a song off the new album, which I just got today, and Lucky Day would be logical choice, but I’m leaving it at #4 at best.
Ok – if Bruce does NOT play ‘Born To Run,’ I will dance around the room like Porky Pig. Other than the Seeger Sessions tour – has he ever NOT played that song.
That being said – if he plays any other other song from The River or before, you might as well dial 911 – ’cause I am gonna need medical attention. Oh – if he plays ‘It’s Hard to be A Saint’ – just get the AED cause I am all done.
Pete you are right- he’ll play something from the new release and ‘Lucky Day’ fits the bill.
My prediction: 1. Lucky Day 2. Countin’ On A Miracle (in honor of Obama’s election) 3. Born To Run
Just pray Springsteen doesn’t decide to turn this into a platform for his political views.
Hey guys!
If the Super Bowl goes into overtime, does the game finish as a tie?
I figured if anyone knew this answer, you guys would.
Go Orange!
Don — No ties in playoff games. Play sudden death until someone scores.
Smitty — This is how I would break down the matchups:
* Cards offense vs Steelers D: tie; both are top units
* Steelers Offense vs Cards D: draw
* Special teams: slight advantage to Steelers … watch the punt returns
* Coaching: tie … they’re all excellent products of the Steelers organization
* Intangibles: advantage Cards … they’re definitely sensing a bit of disrespect … and Whisenhunt and Grimm are ticked they didn’t get the Steeler job
* Prediction: Cardinals win 27-24.
Ok, so those were my predictions, however i did say that they were subject to change, and sure enough they have changed. I have been convinced that he will certainly play Born to Run. It’s a crowd pleaser for fans and for non fans, and that song just equals pure awesome and energy, and though i’ve never seen a stadium tour, i imagine it’ll blow a roof off of even an outdoor stadium (i am not sure what that is supposed to mean, but it sounded like it meant it was super awesome.) As for Sunny Day, someone mentioned that that was more of a Bush song, because while Bush was in office we were waiting for the sunny day. I guess i agree with that, but the problem with The Rising for me is he just played it at the inauguration events, and I just don’t know if he’ll play that song twice in one week for huge national events. Having said that, i think he should play it. As for a new song, it comes down to My Lucky Day and Working On A Dream, and man, he’d be silly to choose the latter. My Lucky Day makes me smile uncontrollably every time i hear it.
So, here are my new, and likely final predictions, in this order:
1 – Lucky Day
2 – The Rising
3 – Born to Run
Comments today on NFL Live -
Mark Schlereth: “I’d like to hear Bruce play Hungry Heart or Jungleland. Actually, I don’t care I appreciate his entire collection.”
Trent Dilfer : “I hope he plays Glory Days.”
What conclusions can we make about Schlereth and Dilfer?
Whatever the choices, Bruce made it clear in an interview yesterday the “The Boss” alone will be making the selections!
Adjusting my song picks. I was under the mistaken impression that Fox was broadcasting the game. I thought Fox controlled everything but whi got elected President of the US. Anyway, NBC will be wanting no NASCAR plugs, so I am dropping Thunder Road and adding Born To Run. Still say: Cards 21 Steelers 17!